Date: Tue, 02 Mar 1999 09:07:07 -0600 From: Paul J Roebber X-Accept-Language: en MIME-Version: 1.0 To: eegle-pi@wings.glerl.noaa.gov, fieldwork@glerl.noaa.gov Subject: Next "Event" The system developing tonight (Tues night) should develop north-northwest winds of 10-20 knots on the western side of Lake Michigan by 9pm tonight. Those northerly winds will strengthen and spread eastward overnight, reaching 20-30 knots during the early morning hours on Wednesday and becoming 30 knots (with higher gusts) over the entire basin by tomorrow morning. These winds will begin to gradually diminish, first in the western side of the basin, by Wed afternoon, becoming 20-30 knots and then 15-25 knots by Wed night. By Thursday morning, the winds will have dropped off to light. The limitation to this system appears to be its relatively rapid passage and late development - peak winds are fairly high (although still less than last year). I have no idea if this system is sufficient to produce a major event, but I'm guessing it will stir up some sediment. If the winds stayed high for a longer period, I believe it would be of more interest. The question is whether there is something better coming along. For that, we have to turn to longer range forecasts. The current indications are for a period of extended E-NE winds in the 20+ knot range Sun-Mon. It is still too early to give any details on that one. Another system threatens toward the middle-end of next week, but the storm track is highly uncertain at this point. I'll keep watching. Paul Roebber