NOAA Great Lakes Seminar Series: 2005 Past Seminars

Tuesday
December 20

Title: "Buddha's Palm -- A personal view of the state of wind wave studies and modeling"

Speaker: Dr. Paul Liu, Research Scientist, NOAA/GLERL

Tuesday
December 13

Title: "The role of Great Lakes ice climatology in operational ice analysis and forecasting"

Speaker: Dr. Craig Evanego, National Ice Center, Washington, D.C.

Abstract:
The accurate analysis and prediction of ice cover in the Great Lakes is important for safety of commercial navigation and Coast Guard winter operations. The North American Ice Service (NAIS), a collaborative effort between the U. S. National Ice Center and the Canadian Ice Service, generates ice analyses of the Great Lakes twice each week, as well as 15- and 30-day forecasts of Great Lakes ice conditions and a 90-day Great Lakes Seasonal Ice Outlook. Ice climatology plays a large role in operational ice analysis and forecasting, and ongoing research in ice climatology is constantly improving our ability to analyze and predict ice conditions in the Great Lakes. This seminar will examine some of this ongoing research and suggest future research possibilities for improving ice analysis and prediction for the Great Lakes region. Additionally, an overview of the relationship between ice climatology research performed at GLERL and operational ice analysis and forecasting efforts of the NAIS will be presented.

Thursday
December 8

Title: "Forecasting nitrogen load reductions to meet water quality criteria in the Neuse River estuary, NC: a bayesian probability network approach"

Speaker: Dr. Craig Stow, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC

Abstract:
In the mid-1990s the Neuse River Estuary in NC experienced algal blooms and massive fishkills that captured both local and national media attention. While the proximal cause of the fishkills was debated, most scientists agreed that the root cause of the problem was excessive nitrogen loading from urban and agricultural activities in the watershed. Thus, the USEPA required the state of North Carolina to develop a nitrogen Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL). To support this activity three models were developed in parallel – representing different levels of spatial and temporal aggregation. We developed a Bayesian probability network model to incorporate stakeholder concerns and quantify the estuarine response to nitrogen load reductions. This model was spatially and temporally aggregated, but capable of accommodating the considerable uncertainty that accompanies forecasting ecological responses to management actions. A comparison of all three models, using independent verification data, revealed comparable, rather modest, predictive capabilities for all three models. This result underscores the importance of the Adaptive Management process, in which management actions are approached as an ecosystem-scale experiment with the resultant monitoring information used to learn about system behavior and update model forecasts. The Bayesian framework provides an ideal template for Adaptive Management with the capability to assimilate new data and update model forecasts using Bayes Theorem.

Thursday
December 8

Title: "Health implications of fecal bacteria at Great Lakes beaches"

Speaker: Dr. Elizabeth Alm, Department of Biology, Central Michigan University

Abstract:
Recreational beaches may serve as both a reservoir of fecal bacteria and a contact point between these bacteria and the public. Recent studies at several Great Lakes beaches have demonstrated persistent, high densities of Escherichia coli and enterococci in beach sand. In both laboratory sand microcosms and in diffusion chamber studies in the field, E. coli isolated from Lake Huron sand were able to grow and to persist at high density. Multi-locus enzyme electrophoresis analysis suggests that the E. coli community of Lake Huron beaches is genetically diverse and that the rate of genetic exchange among the E. coli is high. Our working hypothesis is that the high cell densities combined with environmental stressors at the beach promote rapid lateral gene transfer among sand-associated bacteria. Among the genes that may be moving in the sand microbial community are genes for antibiotic resistance and for enhanced virulence. Approximately one third of E. coli isolated from Lake Huron beaches are resistant to commonly used antibiotics and in sand microcosms incubated under simulated beach conditions, laboratory strains of E. coli were able to transfer and receive plasmids encoding kanamycin-resistance. In addition we have isolated pathogenic strains of bacteria including E. coli O157:H7 and Shigella from recreational beaches. In DNA extracted from colonies on mTEC we have detected the genes encoding intimin and shiga toxins 1 and 2.

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Thursday
December 1

Title: " Lake currents and human health issues in the Great Lakes - is there a connection?"

Speaker: Dr. David Schwab, Research Scientist,
NOAA/GLERL

Abstract:
One of the initial research projects at NOAA's Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and Human Health deals with the influence of nearshore currents on water quality at swimming beaches. Currents in the Great Lakes are primarily wind-driven and have the potential to transport contaminants in unexpected directions. This talk examines what we know about currents in the Great Lakes, based on observations and computer models, and gives several examples of applications where currents might have a significant effect on human health issues.

Monday
November 21

Title: "Challenges for pollution control technologies: from Superfund to emerging contaminants"

Speaker: Dr. Peter Adriaens
University of Michigan Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Natural Resources and Environment

Abstract:
Pharmaceuticals, personal care products, hormones, and wastewater products are identified as emerging environmental concerns, partly because of their potential for endocrine disruptors at a very low chronic exposed level. Lately, more research has been conducted on the environmental occurrences of emerging contaminants in water, soils, sediments and biota in the European countries and in the United States. However, it is a challenge to compare the reported data due to differences in the sampled environments, and targeted analytes. This work reports on a meta analysis of the fate of 30 compounds reported as the most frequently detected in US streams and rivers. They include pharmaceuticals and antibiotics, organic wastewater products and estrogenic compounds. Probabilistic fugacity analysis of concentrations in environmental compartments was carried out using Level I, II and III fugacity models, and predicted concentrations were validated against available data in streams and sediments. Internal validation against observed data indicates both over and underpredictions, whereby compounds with log Kow below 3 and above 1 generally predict within the observed range. Validation of predicted values against available sediment data and biota generally improve with increasing model complexity. Monte Carlo simulations of the impact of sediment organic matter provided for a predictive concentration distribution within 10-15% of the measured concentration range, except for the hormone examples. Currently, the probabilistic models are being validated using available spatio-temporal data at the watershed level. This meta analysis approach for these compounds helps define the technology feasibility and needs for this class of compounds, many of which exhibit physical-chemical characteristics out of range of the well studied ‘Superfund chemicals’, including halogenated solvents and persistent organic pollutants (POPs).

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Tuesday
November 15

Title: "Biotechnology development for monitoring coastal water quality"

Speaker: Dr. Kelly Goodwin, NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratories

Adapting biotechnology originally developed for clinical use is a promising means to address ocean and human health issues. Molecular biological methods have the potential to provide rapid monitoring of organisms that require closure of fisheries or recreational waters. This talk will describe two molecular approaches that are being adapted to detect fecal indicating bacteria, harmful algae, and source tracking markers. One approach, electrochemical biosensors, identifies microbes by monitoring an electric current resulting from the oxidation or reduction of molecular markers. Another approach, the Luminex 100 System, is a suspension array technique that allows rapid, high-throughput, multiplexed detection of targets.

Thursday
November 10

Title: "A big lake's record preserved in a little lake's sediment: A history of lake level change in the Lake Michigan basin from Silver Lake, Michigan."

Speaker: Dr. Timothy Fisher, University of Toledo

Abstract:
Much of the postglacial lake-level history within the Lake Michigan basin is newly reconstructed using soil stratigraphy, ground-penetrating radar (GPR), sand, sedimentology and 14C data from the Silver Lake basin, which lies adjacent to Lake Michigan. Stratigraphy in nine vibracores recovered from the floor of Silver Lake appears to reflect fluctuation of water levels in the Lake Michigan basin. Aeolian activity within the study area from 3000 years (cal yr. B.P.) to the present was inferred from analysis of buried soils, an aerial photograph sequence, and GPR. Sand percentage by weight within cores appears to be in phase with high stands of Lake Michigan in quasi-periodic cycles. Sediments in and around Silver Lake appear to contain a paleoenvironmental record that spans the entire post-glacial history of the Lake Michigan basin. We suggest that (1) a pre-Nipissing rather than a Nipissing barrier separated Silver Lake basin from the Lake Michigan basin, (2) that the Nipissing transgression elevated the water table in the Silver Lake Basin about 6500 cal yr. B.P., resulting in reestablishment of a lake within the basin, and (3) that recent dune migration into Silver Lake is associated with levels of Lake Michigan.

Monday
November 7

Title: "North Pacific air-sea CO2 flux response to climate variability on seasonal to decadal timescales"

Speaker: Galen A. McKinley, University of Wisconsin - Madison

Abstract:
Seven carbon cycle models in the North Pacific are compared to each other and to data. Important components of the models' upper ocean pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux respond similarly to climate variability on seasonal to decadal timescales. Modeled seasonal cycles of pCO2 and its temperature and non-temperature driven components at three sites capture the basic features of the seasonal cycles in observations (Takahashi et al. 2002), but have difficulty representing the total pCO2 cycle at high latitudes because it results from the difference of these two large and opposing components. In the four longest model simulations, the timeseries of the first EOF of modeled interannual variability in the air-sea CO2 flux has a significant correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Regression of the PDO on wind speeds and the driving components of pCO2 illustrates that the three key drivers of pCO2 (temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and alkalinity) have opposing effects on surface ocean pCO2 which minimizes pCO2 anomalies and damps sea-to-air CO2 flux variability across the North Pacific. Windspeed variability is also found to be an important factor in the calculated sea-to-air flux response to the PDO.

Friday
October 28

Title: "The creation of a binational Great Lakes human health network"

Speaker: Elizabeth Murphy, Great Lakes Human Health Network

Abstract:
Great Lakes Human Health Network (GLHHN) was established to improve the exchange of environmental-related health information across the Great Lakes basin. The Network was formed in December 2002 under the guidance of the Binational Executive Committee (BEC), a body comprised of senior Canadian and U.S. officials, to create a forum or mechanism to discuss human health issues directly related to Great Lakes water quality. The Network addresses health issues related to the ecosystem of the Great Lakes basin, including drinking water and recreational water quality, and fish consumption.

The Network is a voluntary partnership of representatives of both US and Canadian governments and their agencies whose purpose is to exchange information, facilitate communication and support the coordination of public health and environmental agencies. Network members will be able to return to their organizations and relay shared information to the communities they serve. The network is also designed to support the LaMP and Remedial Action Plan (RAP) process. Currently, the Network has representatives from six federal government agencies, five tribal government agencies, and eleven state and provincial government agencies, and one county government agency. Network membership continues to build.

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Wednesday
October 26

Speaker: Dr. Gidon Eshel, Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago

Tuesday
October 25

Title: "Unsteady wave breaking on currents"

Speaker: Aifeng Yao, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Abstract:
Unsteady surface breaking waves are notorious hazards to navigation vessels and marine structures. They also serve as important conduits in air-water interactions, and primary agitators of the turbulent mixing in the water column. In oceans and large lakes, unsteady breaking waves are often generated from interactions of wave groups and a concomitant current. Surprisingly, little attention has been paid on these wide-spread scenarios.

Results of a laboratory study of unsteady waves on currents will be presented. The focus will be on the limiting geometric properties just before breaking onset and the dissipative behavior after breaking. Strong dependence of limiting wave steepness and vertical asymmetry on wave-current parameters were identified. Measured changes in wave spectral energy after breaking renewed the existing concepts in up-to-date operational sea state models. A new parameterization has been proposed and validated by the experimental data. Some intriguing aspects in the wave blocking and small-scale breaking on a strong opposing of current are also to be discussed.

Monday
October 24

Seminar at SNRE, Rm 2024

Title: "Use of remotely sensed data in mathematical and statistical modeling"

Speaker: Dilkushi de Alwis, Cornell University

Abstract:
The Mekong River, with a basin of almost 800,000 square kilometers and a length of 4,500 kilometers, ranks amongst the world's great rivers. In this study, remotely sensed vegetation indices are used as inputs in a semi-distributed hydrological model to simulate the hydrology of the Mekong river basin with a particular emphasis on generating data of use to the fisheries industry within the basin.

Remotely sensed surface temperature is used as a source of validation of a hydrodynamic model that is used to simulate the formation and propagation of the thermal bar on lake Ontario. The simulation covers periods of 1997, 1998, and 1999. Several case studies were performed by varying the wind speed and direction, cloud cover, and initial boundary conditions in order to improve the fidelity of the model, measured against the surface temperature data.

Temporal series of remotely sensed data can reveal information not only about vegetation change but also the subsurface hydrology. Statistical modeling using temporal series of medium-resolution Landsat imagery is used to determine temporally homogeneous vegetation regions within four basins in the Catskill watershed, NY. Variations within the homogeneous regions, along with models of geophysical processes, are used to acquire in-depth understanding of the region's hydrological processes.

Friday
October 14

Title: "Sea Ice and the Changing Arctic."

Speaker: Dr. Walter Meier, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO

Tuesday
October 11

Title: OHH Directors' Panel Discussion

Speakers:
Dr. Stephen Brandt, GLERL/NOAA
Dr. Usha Varanasi, Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Dr Fred Holland, Hollings Marine Laboratory

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Thursday
October 6

Title: "Internal phosphorus loading in west Michigan lakes: importance and control."

Speaker: Dr. Alan D. Steinman, Director
Annis Water Resources Institute,
Grand Valley State University

Abstract:
Internal loading is a frequent phenomenon in shallow, eutrophic lakes throughout the world, and may prevent lake water quality from recovering even after external loads are reduced. We have been examining internal P loading in drowned river mouth lakes in west Michigan over the past three years. Spring and Mona Lakes are eutrophic systems that drain to the Grand River and Lake Michigan, respectively. Experiments have been conducted to determine: 1) the apparent internal P loading rate in both lakes; and 2) the influence of alum, sediment resuspension, and bioturbation on internal loading in Spring Lake.

In Spring Lake, diffusive flux rates of TP were extremely low (<0.1 mg/m2/d) in the presence of alum and under aerobic conditions. Diffusive flux rates from the anaerobic/no alum treatment (i.e. ambient conditions) ranged from 1.6 to 29.5 mg/m2/d for TP, depending on the time periods used for computation. These rates, when extrapolated for the entire lake and year, translated into TP internal loads of 2.7 to 6.4 tons/yr, which accounts for between 55 to 65% of the total phosphorus entering Spring Lake. We also determined that P release rates in laboratory core tubes were no different at alum concentrations of 10 mg alum/L than at concentrations of 25 mg/L. Resuspension of sediments substantially increased TP concentrations, even at high alum concentrations, although total soluble phosphorus concentrations remained low in the water provided alum was present. Bioturbation did not appear to play a major factor with respect to P release in these sediments. Given the current concentration of phosphorus in the Spring Lake sediments, internal P loading can continue for another 40 years, even if all external P sources were immediately eliminated.

In Mona Lake, phosphorus flux estimates under anaerobic conditions ranged from ca. 2 to 14 mg P/m2/d, which translate into TP internal loads of 1.0 to 3.4 tons/yr (about ½ of what we measured in Spring Lake). Under aerobic conditions, there was a small but negative flux of phosphorus to the sediments, suggesting that the sediments can serve as a P sink during certain times of the year.

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Monday
October 3

Speaker: Carlo De Marchi, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology; Georgia Water Resources Institute

Satellite images are increasingly used to estimate precipitation over regions of the world where deploying adequate networks of rain gages and weather radars is economically or physically impossible. This seminar presents a methodology for estimating precipitation exploiting rain rates measured from the first satellite-borne precipitation radar (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission). This methodology combines the precise, but infrequent, TRMM data with the infrared (IR) and visible (VIS)images continuously produced by geostationary satellites to provide precipitation estimates at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. A distinguishing feature of the presented methodology is the use of a neural network for identifying the presence and temporal evolution of convective storms at the pixel level. This procedure improves the integration of TRMM precipitation rates and IR/VIS data by differentiating major storms from smaller events and noise, and by separating the distinct precipitation regimes that are associated to each storm stage. Further, this methodology explicitly quantifies the uncertainty of the precipitation estimates by computing their full probability distributions instead of just single “optimal” values. This allows hydrologists to have a clearer idea on the precipitation affecting a region and to better assess the related risks of floods and droughts. The proposed technique has been tested in the Lake Victoria basin over the period 1996-1998 against precipitation data from more than one hundred rain gages representing a variety of precipitation regimes.

Friday
September 30

Title: "Sensitivity of an alpine watershed to climate change: Interactions among stream hydrology, DOC, heavy metals, and UV radiation"

Speaker: Dr. Donna R. Kashian, Fisheries and Wildlife Biology, Colorado State University

Abstract:
Multiple disturbances frequently occur in aquatic ecosystems, but are not well studied because of difficulties in separating effects of individual stressors. Integrated field and microcosm experiments allowed us to quantify effects of multiple stressors in a study examining the interactions of UV-B and metals on Rocky Mountain stream communities. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that UV-B increases susceptibility of aquatic ecosystems to metals. Microcosms experiments involved collecting benthic communities from a reference site and exposing them to UV-B and metals. Because of the limited spatiotemporal scale of microcosm studies, field experiments manipulating UV-B in 5 streams along a metals gradient were also conducted. Structures (1m x 2m) equipped with a UV-B filter (1m x 1m) were placed over riffle areas arranged in a split plot design. Substrate filled trays and ceramic tiles placed under each structure were colonized by macroinvertebrates and periphyton for 60 days. Community metabolism, community structure, and chlorophyll-a were compared among treatments in both experiments. Leaf decomposition was also examined in the field experiments. The combined effects of UV-B and metals were greater than either stressor alone in both field and laboratory studies. This response was observed in structural, functional and behavioral responses. Specifically, blackfly (Simuliidae) abundance significantly decreased with high metals and UV-B exposure in the field experiment, and metabolism was lowest in the metals plus UV-B exposure in the microcosm experiment. UV-B increased the drift response of macroinvertebrates to metals. These findings suggests that Rocky Mountain streams receiving metal pollution from historic mining may be at a greater risk of impairment as increased levels of UV-B radiation reach the earth's surface.

Thursday
September 22

Title: "Progress with Indicators, Methods, Monitoring, Remediation, and Epidemiology for Beaches"

Speaker: Dr. Shannon Briggs,
Michigan Department of Environmental Quality

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Thursday
September 15

Title: "The disappearance of Diporeia in the Great Lakes: in search of a cause"

Speaker: Tom Nalepa, Research Scientist, NOAA/GLERL

Abstract:
The complete disappearance of Diporeia from large areas in Lakes Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario appears unprecedented and directly or indirectly related to the establishment and spread of dreissenid mussels. On a broad scale, the population declines within 3-4 years of when mussels become established in a given area. Yet, on a local scale there are inconsistencies. Diporeia have totally disappeared from areas far-removed from mussels, but continues to be present in areas where mussels are present over the long-term. From our sampling in Lake Michigan, population declines were rapid and apparent in all age classes, or more temporally extended and a result of poor juvenile survival. The former suggests mass mortality in response to perhaps a dreissenid toxic agent, whereas the latter suggests possible food limitation from dreissenid filtering activities. The most commonly suggested hypothesis for the population loss is food limitation. However, quantitative and limited qualitative measures of benthic food inputs from sedimentation traps and upper sediment collections at select Lake Michigan sites, along with observed changes in physiological well-being and laboratory mortality/avoidance experiments, failed to provide conclusive evidence of this hypothesis. Inconsistencies apparent in our results may imply a multitude of stress factors whose relative importance may vary depending on specific environmental conditions. The probability of other reasons for the decline such as nutrient deficiency, diseases, or dreissenid metabolic wastes will be discussed.

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Thursday
August 18

Title: "Is it safe to drink the water? Detecting toxic strains of Microcystis in the Great Lakes."

Speaker: Dr. Juli Dyble, NRC Post-Doctoral Fellow
Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research
NOAA National Ocean Service

Abstract:
Some regions in the Great Lakes have been experiencing a resurgence of the cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (HAB) genera Microcystis. Blooms of Microcystis that produce the toxin microcystin have detrimental impacts on multiple levels, from disruption of zooplankton grazing to illness and mortality in animals and humans. Thus, it is of great concern that microcystin concentrations above the World Health Organization’s recommended limit for drinking water (1 µg/L) were measured in parts of Saginaw Bay and western Lake Erie in August 2004, with particularly high concentrations in wind-accumulated scums near the South Bass Islands. However, not all Microcystis strains produce toxins and traditional microscopic analyses are insufficient for discerning whether a bloom is composed of toxic strains. Instead, genetic analyses based on the mcyB gene, which is involved in cellular microcystin production, were used to differentiate toxic vs. non-toxic strains and specifically detect the presence of toxic strains of Microcystis in environmental samples. DNA sequence analysis of the mcyB gene revealed a genetically variable population of Microcystis in Saginaw Bay and western Lake Erie, with areas containing a greater proportion of toxic Microcystis strains also having higher microcystin concentrations. This data suggests that changes in bloom toxicity may be the result of shifts in community composition. The application of these methods to monitoring and modeling efforts will be important to protect human and ecosystem health in the Great Lakes region.

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Thursday
June 2

Speakers:
Mr. Charles Padera, Vice President - PBS&J and Program Manager-Everglades Partners Joint Venture;
Mr. William Hinsley, Vice President - PBS&J and Program Manager-Louisiana Coastal Area Ecosystem Restoration Project;
Dr. Sanjiv Sinha, Principal Engineer and Director-Water Resources, Environmental Consulting & Technolog (ECT) Inc.

Abstract:
With almost $8 Billion authorized, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Project (CERP) is the largest effort targeted to strategically improve a natural resource of national importance covering nearly a 18,000 square-mile area. As the Director of the consultant team supporting CERP, the first speaker will introduce programmatic ideas tested as a part of this project that include adaptive management, development and application of system and project performance measures, model management, and monitoring and assessment plan development implementation. The seminar will also briefly summarize the value of retaining "marriage counseling" to maintain the health of partnership relations (local governments, state, federal and tribal organizations). The seminar will conclude with a summary of a detailed survey that was a part of a recently concluded planning effort, and helps elucidate the priorities of the key stakeholders within the Great Lakes region.

Monday
May 23

Speaker: Randall E. Hicks, Professor & Department Head, Department of Biology, University of Minnesota-Duluth

Thursday
May 19

Title: "Sediment transport studies in the Great Lakes"

Speaker: Dr. Nathan Hawley, Research Scientist, NOAA/GLERL

Abstract:
For the past 25 years, I have been conducting field observations of sediment resuspension, transport and deposition in the Great Lakes. The main reason for these studies has been the desire to predict the residence times and transport pathways of anthropogenic pollutants in the lakes, but more recently it has been recognized that suspended sediment can also have important effects on the lower food web – primarily by serving as a source of food and by limiting the amount of light available. Most of these studies have been conducted in Lake Michigan, but some work has been done in Lake St. Clair, Lake Ontario, and Lake Superior, and last year a program in Lake Erie was begun. The primary method has been to make time series measurements of wave action, current velocity, water temperature, and the concentration of sediment suspended in the water column, and then attempt to interpret these measurements to determine the physical processes that cause sediment resuspension and the frequency of these events. During the unstratified period (roughly November-June)) wave action is the principal cause of sediment resuspension and transport in the lakes. High winds during fall and winter storms produce large waves that resuspend bottom material in shallow areas. This material is then transported farther offshore during the intervals between the storms by the currents in the lake. Transport mechanisms during the stratified period are less well understood, since large wave events are much less frequent, but offshore transport appears to be concentrated in a region near the bottom of the lake. Internal waves may be the cause of this movement, but there is no clear evidence as yet.

Friday
May 13

Title: "Microbial indicators & environmental health: from Antarctica to Florida's coral reefs."

Speaker: Dr. John Lisle
U.S.Geological Survey
Center for Coastal & Watershed Studies

Thursday
May 5

Speaker: Dr. Xuefeng (Michael) Chu, Assistant Professor and Research Scientist, Annis Water Resources Institute,
Grand Valley State University

Abstract:
Two Windows-based hydrologic and environmental modeling systems, IPTM-CS and HYDROL-INF, have been developed. The former is an integrated pesticide transport modeling system for simulating three-phase (dissolved, adsorbed, and vapor phases) pesticide transport and transformation in a coupled canopy-soil system and the latter is an infiltration-runoff modeling system. The modeling systems integrate pre-processing of data, model run, and post-processing in user-friendly Windows interfaces. To facilitate parameter estimation, extensive databases and convenient parameter calculators have also been developed. Specifically, IPTM-CS takes into account a number of physical and bio-chemical processes, such as advection, diffusion/dispersion, sorption, partitioning between vapor and dissolved phases, decay, plant root uptake, volatilization, as well as pesticide runoff and erosion in the surface zone. A hybrid semidiscrete solution method has been proposed to solve the transport problem and five different numerical schemes of varying accuracy and features have been incorporated in the IPTM-CS system. HYDROL-INF was developed based on a modified Green-Ampt approach, in which a new algorithm was proposed for determining the ponding condition, simulating infiltration into a layered soil profile of arbitrary initial water distributions under unsteady rainfall, and partitioning the rainfall input into infiltration and surface runoff. Furthermore, the model was extended to complex rainfall patterns, including both wet time periods with unsteady rainfall and dry time periods without rainfall. Some useful hydrologic tools have also been developed and incorporated in the HYDROL-INF system.

Title: "Fatty acids, functional groups, phages, and
phylogenetics: Selected insights in microbial
community and population analyses."

Speaker: Dr. James Smoot, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington

Thursday
April 21

Title: "Modeling larval fish transport and growth in Lake Michigan"

Speaker: Dr. Dima Beletsky, University of Michigan/CILER

Abstract:
The transport of larval yellow perch (Perca flavescens) in Lake Michigan is studied with a 3D particle trajectory model. The model uses 3D currents generated by the Great Lakes version of the Princeton Ocean Model driven by observed momentum and heat fluxes in June-August 1998-2003. Virtual larvae were released in the near-shore region with the most abundant preferred substrate for yellow perch spawning, rocks. Particle trajectory model predictions are evaluated with an array of five drifting buoys released in southern Lake Michigan during June-August 2003. We also investigated the potential for physical transport mechanisms to affect recruitment of Lake Michigan yellow perch by coupling hydrodynamic model with individual-based particle model of fish larvae to study variation in larval distributions, growth rates, and potential recruitment. Larval growth rates were simulated using a bioenergetics growth model with fixed consumption rates. Results indicate that lake circulation patterns are important for understanding inter-annual variability in Great Lakes fish recruitment.

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Thursday
April 7

Speaker: Dr. Carl R. Ruetz III, Assistant Professor
Annis Water Resources Institute,
Grand Valley State University

Abstract:
A study was initiated in 2003 to assess short- and long-term trends in fish populations in Muskegon Lake, Michigan. Fishes are sampled with fyke nets (4-mm mesh) at three sites in shallow-water areas (<1 m) along the margins of the lake during spring, summer, and fall. The most abundant species in the catch were the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus), rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris), bluntnose minnow (Pimephales notatus), and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides); however, species richness and composition differed among sampling periods. In addition to fyke-net sampling, boat electrofishing was conducted during spring and fall 2004. Comparison of the two gear types demonstrate that fyke nets are wells suited for sampling small fishes and boat electrofishing is more appropriate for sampling large fishes. This suggests that using both gears provide a better representation of fish populations in the lake. Additionally, field experiments and simple mathematical models are being used to investigate the biases associated with fyke nets, establishing a foundation for interpreting observations of the long-term fish monitoring study. This work shows that the probability of a fish escaping from a fyke net can differ greatly among species. Thus, catch is predicted to differ significantly between species that escape from fyke nets at different rates even when entry rates are similar. Finally, high densities of round gobies in Muskegon Lake suggest the potential for this invasive species to strongly impact the food web. Calorimetry is being used to evaluate whether round gobies are energetically equivalent to native prey fishes. Preliminary results suggest that the energy density of round gobies is not markedly different from functionally similar prey species. Ultimately, benefits of this monitoring effort will likely be in future years when trends and repeatable patterns of fish populations can be tested.

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Tuesday
March 29

Title: "The assessment of contaminated sediment in drowned river mouth lakes."

Speaker: Dr. Richard R. Rediske, Professor, Water Resources, Annis Water Resources Institute
Grand Valley State University

Abstract:
Sediment quality triad assessments were conducted in three drowned river mouth lakes in west Michigan. A series of core and ponar samples were collected from Manistee Lake, White Lake, and Muskegon Lake to evaluate the nature and extent of sediment contamination related to historic anthropogenic activity. Measurements of sediment chemistry (metals, AVS, organic contaminants, and physical characteristics), sediment toxicity (amphipods and chironomids), and the benthic macroinvertebrate community were conducted at 20 - 30 location in each lake. While localized impacts due to specific sources were noted, system hydrology and the nature of the contaminant discharge profoundly influenced the magnitude of environmental degradation observed in each lake. In Manistee Lake, historical discharges from paper, metal finishing, and brine extraction industries resulted in elevated levels of phenols, PAH compounds, and resin acids in the sediments and a depauperate benthic community. While sediment toxicity was correlated with PAH compounds, the ubiquitous presence of hyporheic brines and their influence on limnology appeared to have the greatest negative influence on the benthic community. Anthropogenic impacts to White Lake were related to the discharge of pesticide intermediates and tannery waste on opposites shores of the drowned river mouth. Tannery wastes were discharged in a shallow region subject to wave induced erosion and in the vicinity of the river flow. In this case, chromium advection from contaminated sediments in the historic effluent discharge area was evident through out a majority of the lake. In contrast, the discharge of pesticide intermediates in a deep depositional area of White Lake resulted in a confined zone of sediment contamination. Although localized toxicity and ecological effects were observed in the contaminant discharge zones, the major ecological impact to the lake appeared to be cultural eutrophication. Similarly, areas sediment toxicity and benthic community degradation were observed in Muskegon Lake near historic anthropogenic sources. In this system, distance from the river mouth appeared to have a greater influence on benthic ecology than sediment contamination. The distribution of xenobiotic chemicals in each of these lakes illustrates the importance of drowned river mouth system hydrology on the fate and ecological significance of contaminants. While localized degradation in source areas was observed in all three lakes, contaminant interaction with hydrologic factors influenced their significance on a system wide basis.

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Thursday
March 17

Title: "Climate modeling on the Great Lakes that is both wrong and useful."

Speaker: Dr. Brent Lofgren, Research Scientist, NOAA/GLERL

Abstract:
The adage says that “All models are wrong; some models are useful.” A history of models of the water budget of the Laurentian Great Lakes basin shows a number of simulations that showed drops in the Great Lakes’ levels due to anticipated future climate change, and just a couple that show rises in levels. On this level, both cannot be right, and of the many predicted values derived, none will be precisely correct. The challenge then becomes to dig deeper into the models both to determine their flaws and understand what features are robust and useful. The flaws vary from model to model, with the newest results having a warm bias during the winter that leads to a lack of contrast between the partially ice-covered present winter and more ice-free winters expected in the future, thus significantly affecting winter evaporation. Robust features include a shift of runoff from spring toward winter in the future and a potential decrease in wintertime land-lake contrast in temperature and absolute humidity in the future, again affecting winter evaporation from the lakes.

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Thursday
February 24

Title:"Exploration of a submerged sinkhole ecosystem in Lake Huron"

Speaker: Dr. Bopaiah A. Biddanda, Assistant Professor & Research Scientist, Annis Water Resources Institute and Lake Michigan Center, Grand Valley State University

Abstract:
Dissolution of Silurian-Devonian aquifer in the Lake Huron Basin has produced karst formations (sinkholes) through which groundwater seeps into the lake bottom. Using a remotely operated submersible, we explored one such sinkhole ecosystem located within the Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary during September 2003. Venting groundwater at 100m depth was 4-5 oC warmer and had 10-fold higher conductivity than ambient lake water. A 1-2m thick dark cloudy nepheloid layer with a strong hydrogen sulfide odor prevailed just above the venting area. This layer was characterized by very high concentrations of organic matter (up to 400 mgC/L having a C:N molar ratio of 8-9), sulfate and chloride. Bromide, acetate and formate were also present at lower concentrations. Compared to surface water, vent water was characterized by 10-fold higher dissolved organic matter, bacterial biomass as well as heterotrophic bacterial production. Microbial diversity was reduced in the vent water (a characteristic of extreme environments), relative to surface and deep-water end members. Significant uptake of 14C-bicarbonate in dark incubations provided preliminary evidence for occurrence of chemosynthesis in this sulfide-rich, oxygen-poor, organic-rich, aphotic environment. Could the observed high rates of heterotorphic production be supported by intense chemosynthetic production of organic matter by specialized Bacteria and Archea within this submerged sinkhole ecosystem in the Laurentian Great Lakes?

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Thursday
February 17

Title: "Anatomy of the recurrent coastal plume in Lake Michigan: interactions among turbulence, suspended sediments, light, nutrients, and plankton."

Speaker: Dr. Henry Vanderploeg, Research Scientist, NOAA/GLERL

Abstract:
Cross-margin transects in southern Lake Michigan from vertically undulating tows of the plankton survey system (optical plankton counter, CTD and fluorometer mounted on a V-fin), water samples, net tows, and modeling revealed the anatomy of total suspended matter (TSM), light climate, and turbulence across storm-generated sediment plumes and provided insight into how these variables affected nutrient and plankton distributions. Total P concentration was highly correlated with TSM and river influence. Chlorophyll concentration dropped rapidly in plume areas possibly because of likely effects of high turbulence injuring cells and coagulation with settling sediment that delivered phytoplankton to the benthos near the plume edge. Decreased light intensity (photic depth as low as 1 m) in the plume also had a negative affect on phytoplankton. Present nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton models, which do not include turbulence or coagulation, do not simulate observed chlorophyl dynamics. Microzooplankton (MZ) biomass was highest in nearshore areas receiving river inflow. Species composition of both phytoplankton and MZ may have been affected by selective removal of turbulence sensitive species and large species that coagulated with sediment. Mesozooplankton avoiding turbulence in surface layers may have been the explanation for finding high concentrations of mesozooplankton in nearshore areas on upwelling shores and low concentrations on downwelling shores after storms. Zebra mussel filtering likely caused reduced biomass of both chlorophyll and microzooplankton near inshore reef areas. Because of the lower concentrations of phytoplankton in the plume, the plume over the short term was likely to have had a negative impact on mesozooplankton.

Monday February 14

Speaker: Pedro J. Restrepo, Ph.D., P.E.
Senior Scientist, NOAA, National Weather Service - Office of Hydrologic Development

Abstract:
This NOAA Hydrology Program overview will cover Fresh Water Issues and Impacts, NOAA’s Forecasting Services, Hydrologic Forecasting Challenges, Community Hydrologic Prediction System, Debris Flow Warnings and Fresh Water Quality Forecasting Service. This will be followed by a summary of the Office of Hydrologic Development's research activities related to 1) Hydrology, including Issues in Snow Modeling, Frozen Ground Modeling, Distributed Modeling: DMIP-1 and DMIP-2, and Flash Flood Modeling; 2) Hydrometeorology, including Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) and Raingauge Quality Control; 3) Hydraulics, and 4) Ensemble Modeling including short-term precipitation and temperature ensemble generation.

Video available on CD by request. Rochelle.Sturtevant@noaa.gov

Thursday
January 20

Title: "Numerical and Physiological Response of Fish to Reef Habitat in Marine Coastal Ecosystems"

Speaker: Dr. Doran Mason, Fish Ecologist, NOAA

Abstract:
How and why large mobile reef fish use patchy habitat, and the potential consequences on demographic parameters, must be known for spatial population modeling, for discriminating Essential Fish Habitat (EFH) and for planning effective conservation measures (e.g. marine protected areas, stock enhancement and artificial reefs). Gag, Mycteroperca microlepis, is an ecologically and economically important warm-temperate, reef-dwelling grouper in the southeastern USA, with behavioral and life history traits amenable to large-scale field experiments using artificial reefs. Our results over the past decade substantiate that density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) for shelter, trophic coupling between habitat types and individual growth dynamics are interdependent ecological processes. We infer that patchy reef habitat of variable intrinsic quality contributes to variation in gag reproductive parameters. Moreover, gag select reef habitat on the basis of shelter at the expense of maximizing growth. Thus, motile reef fishes could experience significant density-dependent effects on growth, survival, and/or reproduction (i.e. affecting demographic parameters) despite reduced stock sizes as a consequence of fishing. We therefore hypothesize that natural hard-bottom habitat in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico represents a demographic bottleneck for juvenile-to-adult gag during their transition from inshore nursery grounds to offshore spawning aggregations. This hypothesis is to be tested using a 260-square kilometer fisheries management area (FMA) currently being developed with artificial reefs designed for conservation objectives. This presentation will highlight some of our results to date.