 |
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
 |
||
|
||||
      |
GLERL 2000 Milestone Reports
GOAL: IMPLEMENT SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL FORECASTS
OBJECTIVE: Implement Prediction Systems
PM: % Of System Operational
Milestone: Next-generation of water resources prediction will be augmented through publication of a book "Using Meteorology Probability Forecasts in Operational Hydrology."
Scientist: Thomas E. Croley, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
Purpose. This milestone was undertaken as the logical conclusion
of GLERL's work to document, for the public, the use of NOAA's short-term,
seasonal, and interannual probabilistic meteorology outlooks in making
derivative water resource probabilistic forecasts. It places the manual
of procedures and theory, developed under a FY1999 milestone, fully before
practicing engineers and the public in a form conducive to self-instruction.
Its goal is to provide instruction and examples of use, relevant for and
understandable by the intelligent layman, for using NOAA's climate outlooks
and its other probabilistic weather outlooks in problems of his own. NOAA's
strategic plan calls for infrastructure for (among other things) using
their forecasts, and develops several objectives, two of which are especially
relevant to this milestone:
· Deliver useful seasonal to interannual climate forecasts for
the U.S. and collaborate in a multinational effort to generate and use
similar forecasts.
· Assess the impacts of climate variability on human activity and
economic potential, and improve public education so those climate forecasts
are understood and acted upon.
Before NOAA's forecasts can be considered fully implemented, instruction
must exist on the use of these forecasts that is understandable and illustrative.
That has been accomplished now.
Efforts. The book, "Using Meteorology Probability Forecasts in Operational Hydrology" is a manual of procedures and theory for using short-term, seasonal, and interannual probabilistic meteorology outlooks from NOAA and other agencies in derivative water resources probabilistic forecasts via operational hydrology methods. Final camera-ready copy was produced and submitted to the publisher (ASCE Press). This last year saw the review, revision, acceptance, production, and final printing of the book.
Customers. The book will be useful to various geophysical scientists or engineers who are concerned with making forecasts of variables that depend on the weather. These include designers and managers of water resource projects, environmental assessment efforts, impact studies, and many derivative-process behavior descriptions. The American Society of Civil Engineers will disseminate the book as part of their engineering series. It is expected to sell mainly to practicing engineers at this point but may find use as a university textbook in the future.
Significance. This book describes how to use the numerous forecasts of meteorology probabilities that are now available to the geophysical scientist or engineer. It defines an approach for generating consequent hydrology (or other) probabilities for assessing decision risks for a designer or manager. This is a heuristic approach that is suitable for simultaneously using a wide variety of disparate probabilistic meteorology forecasts over a variety of time scales, time periods, spatial domains, probability statements, and meteorology variables. The book includes application examples largely from the U. S. Laurentian Great Lakes, but the methodology is not particular to the Great Lakes; any hydrology (or other derivative) model of the reader may be used. The examples not only include different (hydrology) models, but also use six currently available agency meteorology forecasts in the US and Canada as well as user-defined meteorology probabilities. The latter include El Niño and La Niña conditional probabilities as well as examples of their derivation and sufficient information for the reader's own applications.
Decision-makers must make their own judgments as to the importance and priority of multiple meteorology probability forecasts. (Some guidance is provided on priority ordering.) This book then facilitates the use of reader-selected meteorology forecasts to make derivative forecasts. Finally, while the examples in this book deal with long-range meteorology forecasts over a week, a month, or a three-month period, set anywhere over the next 12 months, the methodology applies equally well to, and can immediately be used for, short-term forecasts.
The methodology entails duties that are easily handled by companion software, which is freely available. Otherwise, these duties are cumbersome in detail and could impede obtaining experience with the numerous examples presented in the book, or with actually using the methodology in practice. Companion computer software in the form of a graphical user interface enables the reader to easily perform their duties in an understandable and intuitive manner. An appendix describes the acquisition and use of this software, contains illustrative examples for using it, and provides detailed instruction for duplicating all of the application examples in the book.
Success. The book was completed and published this quarter and is now currently available to the public. As mentioned above, this milestone enables people to use available NOAA (and other) extended forecasts of meteorology probabilities. It should help educate decision-makers in the use of these climate forecasts in their own disciplines. It will enable the assessment of weather impacts as they relate to climate variations on seasonal to interannual time scales. It contributed to the "implementation of prediction systems" (strategic plan objective) by enabling laypeople to use NOAA's outlooks. While not directly affecting the performance measure of "% of system operational," it directly impacts the usability of the system products.
Next Steps. Self-installing software, in the form of a graphical user interface, example data, and additional tutorial documentation are also being provided to the public over the World Wide Web. They are offered as a free companion to the book to facilitate both understanding the material presented in the book and using multiple extended forecasts of meteorology probabilities in actual practice. Currently, several workshops at GLERL are planned for introducing interested parties to the techniques in the book as well as the Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System.
Last updated: July 9, 2002 mbl