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GLERL 2002 Milestone Reports
Milestone 2002 Home
GOAL: IMPLEMENT SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL CLIMATE FORECASTS
OBJECTIVE 4: Improve Public Education So That Climate Forecasts Are Understood and Acted Upon.
PM: Number of users of NOAA's Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasts interpreting their decision risks from the forecasts.
Milestone: Complete multimedia computer training tutorial on the use of Derivative Outlook Weights software for using probabilistic climate outlooks to make derivative user outlooks.
Scientist: Thomas Croley
Purpose: Software is available at GLERL to enable people to intuitively use the multitude of probabilistic meteorology outlooks available to make their own derivative probabilistic outlooks for any application that depends on meteorology. The software provides the means to do three main tasks, essential in the construction of derivative outlooks from meteorology probability forecasts. The first task enters all of the meteorology forecast information available such as all agency forecasts of meteorology probabilities and most-probable events, as well as probability forecasts that otherwise may be available. Part of this first task sorts through all of the entered information and arranges the forecast equations in a meaningful order of priority, enabling later computations to omit the lower-priority equations when necessary to affect a solution. The second task defines the parameters of simulations used to make derivative deterministic forecasts. These include the period of the forecast and the identification of the pieces of the historical meteorology record, which are to be used as inputs to the model simulations. These two tasks can proceed independently, although it is relevant to use meteorology forecasts that are timely to the derivative forecast being made, and hence to the simulation parameters involved in the methodology. The third task is to construct weight equations, representing the probabilistic meteorology outlooks, and to solve them for weights to apply to the simulated outputs. The third task is dependent on the first two tasks.
The software consists of an interactive graphical user interface, entitled Derivative Outlook Weights, which is a 32-bit Windows™ application designed for Windows95™, Windows98™, WindowsNT™ (version 4.0), Windows2000™, and WindowsXP™. It is freely available over the World Wide Web from GLERL (http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/wr/OutlookWeights.html). The software is described elsewhere (Croley, 2000), in material accompanying the software, and in an early computer tutorial. The theory behind the software also is described elsewhere (Croley, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2001). An updated interactive multimedia computer tutorial (second version) has just been completed for use in user downloads and in stand-alone applications. This tutorial describes the latest version of the software (14 June 2001), its installation and usage, and provides helpful notes on making outlooks with the software. It also is available at the web site mentioned above.
Efforts: This second version (13 March 2002) of the Derivative Outlook Weights Tutorial aims to make user navigation through the program easier and more intuitive. A master page layout was designed and implemented throughout the whole program. This creates a sense of stability and order as the user navigates through the links and buttons (see Figure 1) A hierarchical menu system allows direct access to the different sections of the tutorial (see Figure 2). A checkmark appears by each menu item as the user completes all terms below it in the menu hierarchy. The checkmarks delineate which links and sections have been visited and can be reset by the user. Although each page was derived from a master layout, it is individualized with its own headings, static graphics, various links, and interactive (dynamic) graphics. In addition to page arrows and page numbers, there are also links provided, where meaningful, to non-sequential pages (as on an overview page), to example animations, and to web sites. Also, a page's appearance may change as the cursor is placed over various statements on the page (see Figure 3)
Customers: Engineering firms, government agencies, water managers, hydrological forecasters, and other decision-makers, who must use various agencies' probabilistic meteorology outlooks to assess the risks associated with their decisions, will find the interactive multimedia computer tutorial augments the documentation provided with the software for using forecasts. This includes those using the extended probabilistic meteorological forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and Environment Canada's Meteorological Service of Canada (see Figure 4)
Significance: The Derivative Outlook Weights software encapsulates many aspects of using probabilistic meteorology outlooks in making derivative outlooks. While the documentation provided with the software forms a complete reference, it is not user friendly. The interactive multimedia computer tutorial prepared here enables the user to explore the functionality of the software in a self-directed exploration of the hierarchical presentation.
Success: This work provides a much easier and user-friendly tutorial than both the original documentation and the first interactive tutorial (also still available from the web address above). The addition of the hierarchical menu system with checkmarks provides a much-desired ability for the user to directly access material and to remember previously viewed material. In addition, this version of the tutorial describes the latest version of the software (14 June 2001).
Next Steps: Further development of the tutorial would be necessary if the software is updated in the future (as new agency forecasts are added) or to reduce the size of the tutorial. At present, there are no plans for further development.
Figure 1. A master page layout was designed and implemented throughout the whole program.
Figure 2. A hierarchical menu system allows direct access to the different sections of the tutorial
Figure 3. A page's appearance may change as the cursor is placed over various statements on the page
Figure 4. This includes those using the extended probabilistic meteorological forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and Environment Canada's Meteorological Service of Canada
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Last updated: July 9, 2002 mbl