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GLERL 2003 Milestone Reports
GLERL 2003 Milestone Home
GOAL 1: Protect, Restore, and Manage use of Ocean and Coastal Resources through Ecosystem Management Approaches
OBJECTIVE: Increase ocean and coastal areas explored, mapped, characterized and inventoried.
Specific Strategy: Understand, describe and develop new environmental forecasting capabilities for the Great Lakes.
Milestone: Implement routine distribution of GLERL Coastal Forecasting System wave forecasts for the Great Lakes to NWS offices via NOAAPORT or other communications systems
Scientist: David Schwab, GLERL
Purpose: The GLCFS (Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System) project is designed to develop and fully implement a system of computerized models that can simulate and predict the three-dimensional structure of currents, temperatures, water level fluctuations, wind waves, and sediment transport in the Great Lakes. The project will integrate these models with the required observational data systems into a real-time coastal prediction system. The project will make the information developed from this system available in a useful format and in a timely fashion to National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, coastal users and resource managers.
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Figure 1. screen shot of GLCFS web page
Efforts: In 2003, GLERL operated the fully-implemented workstation-based version of GLCFS on computer systems at GLERL. There were almost no interruptions in production despite the fact that GLERL is not a 24x7 operational facility. This activity puts us in a position to transfer GLCFS to operational units in the most efficient manner and provides the opportunity to develop and participate in new research projects related to coastal forecasting in the Great Lakes. Two potential avenues for transfer to NOAA 24x7 operational units have been identified (NCEP and NOS CO-OPS) and are being pursued. NOS CO-OPS has developed an implementation plan for transfer of the lake circulation modeling part of GLCFS to NOS in FY04. NWS NCEP also has a plan for producing Great Lakes wave forecasts, but due to lack of resources it is unlikely to be implemented for some time. In the meantime, GLCFS products are being disseminated from GLERL to NWS forecast offices through AWIPS (the NWS advanced weather information processing system) and used routinely in interactive graphical forecasts (IFPS: Interactive Forecast Preparation System) and as guidance for worded marine forecasts and warnings.
Customers: The results of this project will be useful to all users of the Great Lakes coastal waters who require real-time information and forecasts of temperatures, currents, water levels, and waves. Physical processes have a major impact on environmental, chemical, and biological processes and influence many other types of user activities, such as water supply management, waste water management, power plant sitings, shipping, recreational and commercial boating and fishing, shoreline erosion and redistribution of sedimentary material. Planners and managers responsible for any part of the Great Lakes ecosystem that is affected by lake circulation, such as transport of toxic material or nutrient enrichment processes, will have full access to the information provided by Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System (GLCFS) to assist them in their decision making processes.
The forecasts of lake waves, water levels, water temperatures, and currents are expected to provide NWS marine forecasters with a significant source of new information, which should lead to considerable improvements both in the accuracy and efficiency of marine forecasts for the Great Lakes.
Significance: Making Great Lakes wave and circulation forecasts available to NWS forecasters at their workstations is the culmination of a ten year research and development effort at GLERL and Ohio State University to demonstrate the feasibility of operational coastal forecasts for the Great Lakes. The Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System has been the prototype for similar systems being developed for coastal areas and estuaries both in the US and around the world.
Figure 2. AWIPS display of GLCFS wave forecasts
Success: In FY 2003, procedures were implemented to transfer GLCFS forecast products in GRIB format to the NWS telecommunications gateway where they are assigned product codes and disseminated to NWS offices through NOAAPORT. At NWS forecast offices, the products are used in graphical form on AWIPS and disseminated to the public. The result is more accurate, timely, and higher resolution wave forecasts for the Great Lakes than have been previously available.
Next steps: We will continue to operate GLCFS at GLERL and assist in the transfer of GLCFS components to NWS and NOS operational units.
