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GLERL 2005 Milestone Reports
< GLERL 2005 Milestone main page
GOAL: Ecosystem
Scientist: Dr. David Schwab (GLERL)
NOAA Performance Objective: Increase number of regional coastal and marine ecosystems delineated with approved indicators of ecological health and socio-economic benefits that are monitored and understood.
NOAA Corporate Measure: TBD
Ecosystem Research Program Performance Measure: PM 5:Number of integrated ecological forecast models developed, and the technology transferred to the appropriate agency.
OAR Performance Measure: Increased number and accuracy of forecasts of significant ecological events and trends (e.g., harmful algal blooms, coral bleaching and population shifts), that provide necessary information for NOAA's stewardship responsibilities.
NOAA Program: Ecosystem Research
Milestone: Complete transfer of technology for operating Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System to NOS CO-OPS to improve prediction system. (David Schwab, GLERL)
Purpose: GLERL, in collaboration with Ohio State University, developed a prototype coastal forecasting system for currents, water levels, and temperatures in the Great Lakes (Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System, GLCFS) which has been operating at GLERL and OSU since 1998. The objectives of the GLCFS project were:
- Fully implement a system of computerized models that can simulate and
predict the three-dimensional structure of currents, temperatures, water
level fluctuations, wind waves, ice, and sediments in the Great lakes;
- Integrate these models with the required observational data systems
into a real-time coastal prediction system; and
- Make the information developed from this system available in a useful
format and in a timely fashion to NWS forecasters, coastal users and resource
managers.
In May 2004, NOS began working with GLERL to transfer this system into the NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). Lakes Michigan and Erie were scheduled for full operational implementation in Fall 2005.
Efforts and Results (to date): In 2004, NOS CO-OPS began the process of adapting the hydrodynamic modeling part of GLCFS to their operational environment. Methods for data acquisition and file storage formats were changed to conform to CO-OPS standards for operational models. Graphical products were modified to better suit NOS operational needs. GLERL assisted by participating in weekly conference calls, providing computer code for hydrodynamic models and associated data processing programs, and evaluating results. The operational system was completed at NOS in September, 2005 and will be unveiled to the public at the end of the month. A draft of the press release summarizes the efforts and results:
NOAA UNVEILS OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEMS FOR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE MICHIGAN Systems Will Aid Navigation, Search and Rescue, and Hazardous Material Spill Response in Lakes
Starting September 30, 2005, mariners in Lake Erie and Lake Michigan will have two new tools to assist them in navigating safely and efficiently. The Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LEOFS) and Lake Michigan Operational Forecast System (LMOFS), implemented by NOAA, provide lake carriers, mariners, port managers, emergency response teams, and recreational boaters with present and future conditions of water levels, currents, temperatures and winds.
The marine trade system of the Great Lakes, which include Lake Erie and Michigan, annually handle as much as 176 million net tons of cargo. Self propelled vessels and integrated tug/barge units that can range up to a thousand feet in length, carry the raw materials that drive the nation's economy: iron ore and fluxstone for the steel industry, limestone and cement for the construction industry, and coal for power generation. Other important cargos include salt, sand, grain and liquid-bulk products. In the steel industry alone, more than 400,00 jobs depend on Great Lakes trade. These waters are also home to millions of U.S. and Canadian registered boats, with the recreational boating industry providing over 125,000 jobs and contributing approximately $9 billion (U.S.) annually to the regional economy. LEOFS and LMOFS provide accurate information needed by Users in their day-to-day utilization of the Lakes.
Nowcast (for present conditions) and forecast (for future conditions) products are generated by a three dimensional hydrodynamic model that uses information including real time and forecast winds, water levels, and other meteorological parameters to predict water levels, currents, and temperatures at thousands of locations throughout the two Lakes. Key products include data plots and/or animations of water levels, currents, and temperatures. The nowcast conditions are updated hourly, while the forecast component performs thirty-hour forecasts, four times a day (every six hours). Nowcast and forecast products will assist lake carriers, shippers, and port managers in making decisions regarding maximum tonnage (based on bottom clearances) and limiting passage times, without compromising safety.
The pioneering prototypes for these systems were constructed in collaboration between NOAA and The Ohio State University (OSU). The systems will be maintained in an operational environment twenty four hours a day, seven days a week, by NOAA. Operational systems for the remaining Great Lakes (Superior, Huron, and Ontario) will be transitioned to operational status during early 2006. NOAA has also developed and maintains operational forecast systems for the Chesapeake Bay, Galveston Bay, New York/ New Jersey Harbor, and the St. Johns River. Systems for other significant U.S. water bodies will be added in the future.
Operational products can be accessed via the web at: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/leofs/products.shtml and http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/lmofs/products.shtml
Figure 1. Sample products from LMOFS (left) and LEOFS (right). The Lake Michigan graph shows water temperature forecasts and the Lake Erie graph shows surface current forecasts.
Customer(s): The Lake Erie Operational Forecast System
(LEOFS) and Lake Michigan Operational Forecast System (LMOFS) will provide
lake carriers, mariners, port managers, emergency response teams, and
recreational boaters with present and future conditions of water levels,
currents, temperatures and winds. In particular, nowcast and forecast
products will assist lake carriers, shippers, and port managers in making
decisions regarding maximum tonnage (based on bottom clearances) and limiting
passage times, without compromising safety.
Cause Factors (if milestone not met):
N/A
Revised Completion Date (if milestone not met):
N/A
Last updated: 2005-09-27mbl