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GLERL Program Title: Circulation Modeling - FY96/97 Update
This Research Program provides new or improved circulation and wind models and other products to assist in marine hazard prediction, emergency response, damage prevention and reduction, thus providing tools for more effective management of water resources. It incorporates two ERL Research Tasks: GLERL 1: Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting (Task 1 Leader: David Schwab, 734-741-2120, david.schwab@noaa.gov) and GLERL 3 - Coast Watch (Task 3 Leader: George Leshkevich, 734-741-2265, george.leshkevich@noaa.gov)
Meteorological and oceanographic conditions in coastal areas can sometimes become dangerous and cause significant damage to property, loss of human life, and social or economic disruption. One of the primary factors responsible for producing hazardous conditions in coastal areas is the marine surface wind. Although wind is a hazard by itself for boats, ships, and other structures, the danger is increased in aquatic systems by wind-generated large waves, storm surges, and currents. High and low water levels, heavy snowfalls, ice, and shoreline erosion also pose serious threats in the Great Lakes and coastal marine areas, as do human-caused hazards, especially spills of petroleum products and chemicals. A principal mission objective of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to develop and deliver hazard mitigation products consisting of data, warnings, predictions, and advice to users of the coastal ocean and Great Lakes.
The safe and wise use of coastal waters requires knowledge of the physical characteristics of these waters and a method to anticipate changes in these characteristics. Typically these include the three-dimensional distributions of temperature and currents, water levels, and surface wave fields. According to the 1989 National Research Council Report on Opportunities to Improve Marine Forecasting, " There exists a common national interest in, and need for, nowcasts and forecasts of oceanic velocity, thermal structure, and related fields. Significant and sustainable benefits to a variety of commercial, military, and recreational oceanic activities are identifiable and are now, for the first time, feasible based on existing ocean science and technology." GLERL's Circulation Modeling Program addresses this need in the Great Lakes, and has been responsible, in the past, for development of trajectory, wind-wave, and seiche prediction models that are used on the Great Lakes in support of the mission of the National Weather Service, state emergency management agencies, and the Coast Guard.
CoastWatch is a NOAA-wide program designed to facilitate the distribution and access to NOAA satellite products relevant to the coastal environment. Satellite and in situ data and products are received and/or developed at eight regional CoastWatch nodes throughout the coastal United States and Great Lakes and are distributed via the Internet to Federal, state and local agencies and academic institutions for environmental monitoring, management, and supporting research. CoastWatch directly supports agency statutory responsibilities in estuarine and marine science, living marine resource protection, and ecosystem monitoring and management, contained in several Federal environmental statutes including the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement.
FY96/97 Accomplishments and
Plans Cover Page
Research Overview page
GLERL home page
Project Index
GLERL 01 - Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting
- Lake Circulation Studies and the Great Lakes Coastal
Forecasting System (GLCFS)
- Hydrodynamic Model of Lake Michigan Mass Balance
Study (LMMB)
- Great Lakes Geology and Geophysics Data Rescue
- Bathymetry
GLERL 03 - Coast Watch
- Great Lakes CoastWatch and NOAA Ocean Communications
Network
- Great Lakes CoastWatch Research and Product Development
FY96/97 Accomplishments and
Plans Cover Page
Research Overview page
GLERL home
ERL Research Task: GLERL 1 - Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting
Lake Circulation Studies and the Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System
(GLCFS)
Principal Investigator: David Schwab (734-741-2120; david.schwab@noaa.gov)
Collaborating Scientist: Keith Bedford (Ohio State University)
This project is concerned with numerical simulation and prediction of temperatures and currents in the Great Lakes. During FY95, work being conducted under a separate project titled "Coastal Hazards" was incorporated.
The objectives of this project are (1) to develop and test improved hydrodynamic models that can simulate and predict the three-dimensional structure of currents and temperatures in the Great Lakes, and (2) to extend the models to simulate and predict the transport and diffusion of pollutants and nutrients and (3) couple these models to aquatic ecology and water quality models. The goal of GLCFS is to implement and test a system for real-time prediction of the physical status of the Great Lakes based on the hydrodynamic models developed under this project.
The GLCFS is being developed jointly by NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) and Ohio State University (OSU) to provide daily nowcasts and two-day forecasts of the complete physical state of each of the Great Lakes. It uses data input from National Weather Service (NWS) surface and marine observations, satellite (AVHRR) water temperature analyses, water levels, National Meteorological Center wind forecasts, as well as data from other sources, such as municipal and industrial water intake temperatures. The conceptual plan is for a system that nowcasts and forecasts various physical conditions on each Lake, such as wave height and direction, winds, currents, and temperature structure, several times per day for up to two days in advance. In addition, forecasts of environmental parameters such as sediment transport and water clarity, certain water quality indicators, such as chlorophyll and nutrients, and the trajectories of oil and chemical spills, could be incorporated into the system, if appropriate models are developed.
The forecasting system will have application to: 1) hazard warning, avoidance, and reduction; 2) enhancement of commercial and recreational activity; and 3) natural resource preservation. The output will be a series of maps and alphanumeric products tailored to display specific information based on the requirements of the user(s). For example, the present condition and forecasts of thermocline depth and current velocities will be useful to commercial and recreational fishermen, while water temperature forecasts for sites of municipal and industrial water intakes would be useful to certain industries and municipalities.
In FY94 the title of the "Great Lakes Forecasting System" was changed to "Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System" (GLCFS), to alleviate confusion between this and a water resources forecast system being developed also within GLERL.
FY96 Progress and Accomplishments
In collaboration with the National Weather Service, Cleveland, we developed
an implementation plan for GLCFS workstation version. This plan provides
the framework for GLCFS software development. We designed and tested a
workstation version of the GLCFS on one of GLERL's HP workstations, in
order to prepare and test a stand-alone version of the GLCFS for operation
at NWS Cleveland. The main differences from the operational system at
OSU are: 1) the workstation version will do wind analysis and wave forecast/nowcast
for all 5 lakes, not just Lake Erie, but circulation nowcast/forecast
for Lake Erie only; 2) all computations are done on the workstations,
a supercomputer is not required; 3) output can be customized to the operational
needs of NWS forecasters and will not be publicly available. We revised
the entire operational system to strengthen its resistance to unanticipated
problems. This includes separation of meteorological data acquisition
from model runs and improved file naming and file structure specifications.
The revised system will form the basis for what we implement at Cleveland.
In response to recent problems on the U.S. side of Lake St. Clair with
summer beach closings due to massive deposits of aquatic weeds (macrophytes)
on the beaches, we produced a new Lake St. Clair circulation and particle
tracking model and provided it for the joint U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
- State of Michigan"Lake St. Clair Macrophyte Study". We also provided
a report on the development and use of the model and assisted the Corps
with the application of the model to macrophyte transport scenarios for
their study.
Products
Kelley, J.G.W., D.J. Welsh, D.J. SCHWAB, K.W. Bedford, B. Hoch,
and J.S. Hobgood, 1996. High-resolution, short-term lake forecasts for
Lake Erie, in Estuarine and Coastal Modeling, Proceedings of the
4th International Conference (eds. M.L. Spaulding and R.T.
Cheng). Amer. Soc. Civil Eng.
SCHWAB, D.J. and K.W. Bedford, 1995. Report on the First Annual
Great Lakes Forecasting System (GLFS) Users Group Workshop. Ohio Sea Grant
Program, 11 pp.
SCHWAB, D.J. and K.W. Bedford, 1996. GLCFS - a coastal forecasting
system for the Great Lakes. Preprint Volume, AMS Conference on Coastal
Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction, American Meteorol. Soc., 9-14.
SCHWAB, D.J. and K.W. Bedford, in press. Great Lakes forecasting,
in Coastal Ocean Prediction (ed. C. Mooers). Amer. Geophys. Union,
Coastal and Estuarine Studies.
In addition to the above written documents, five scientific presentations
were made under this project.
FY97 Plans
- Develop stand-alone workstation version of GLCFS for Cleveland NWS. This will allow NWS to evaluate GLCFS as a potential tool for improving Great Lakes marine forecasts.
- Integrate stand-alone GLCFS with network and test operations.
- Transfer stand-alone GLCFS to NWS Cleveland.
- Provide training and support for NWS Cleveland staff.
Hydrodynamic Model of Lake Michigan for EPA Lake
Michigan Mass Balance Study
Principal Investigator: David Schwab (734-741-2120; david.schwab@noaa.gov)
Collaborating Scientist: Dmitry Beletsky (CILER-University of Michigan)
This project is a part of the EPA-sponsored Lake Michigan Mass Balance
Study (LMMB). The purpose is to develop a hydrodynamic model to estimate
the three-dimensional circulation in Lake Michigan at space and time scales
adequate to resolve sediment resuspension and transport events. These
events are important in determining the ultimate fate of toxic contaminants
in the lake.
The objectives of this project are to (1) implement a three dimensional
hydrodynamic model for Lake Michigan, (2) calibrate the model with GLERL
current meter and thermistor data from the GLERL 1982-83 Lake Michigan
field program, (3) use the model to simulate three dimensional transport
and thermal structure in Lake Michigan during the 1993 mass balance study
field season, and (4) couple the hydrodynamic model with a sediment resuspension
and transport model being developed at the EPA Large Lakes Research Station
(LLRS).
We are using a modified version of the Princeton Ocean Model (Blumberg
and Mellor, 1987), a primitive equation numerical hydrodynamic circulation
model, to calculate the three-dimensional current field in the lake. The
model is based on the three-dimensional, nonlinear Navier-Stokes equations.
It employs a terrain-following vertical coordinate (sigma coordinate)
to provide high vertical resolution even in shallow areas. We will use
observed meteorological data as the forcing function for the model. Over
the past 5 years, the Princeton hydrodynamic model has been adapted for
use in the Great Lakes and has been successfully applied to Lake Erie,
both for long-term climatological simulations and for use in a real-time
coastal forecasting system (see Project 1-1). The model will eventually
be coupled with the EPA sediment deposition-resuspension-transport and
fate model to assist in the mass balance calculations for Lake Michigan
toxics.
FY96 Progress and Accomplishments
A scheme for segmentation of the Level II model and aggregating hydrodynamic
model output was developed and is being implemented.
The Lake Michigan hydrodynamic model simulations for 1982-83 were provided to EPA for use in their water quality modeling efforts under the LMMB. These results show that the largest currents occur in the fall and winter, when temperature gradients are lowest, and compare quite well with observed currents. Large scale circulation patterns tend to be cyclonic (counterclockwise), with cyclic circulation within each subbasin. We are continuing to analyze the results of the 1982-83 simulation. Two of the interesting characteristics we have observed are that 1) stratification occurred much more quickly in 1983 than in 1982, perhaps as a result of the mild winter, and 2) the predominantly cyclonic circulation in the lake is probably a result of a predominantly cyclonic wind stress curl over the lake. We are continuing to investigate these and other features of the circulation.
Figure caption: Sample results of the 1982-83 circulation
model calculations.
A numerical wave simulation model was also run, using the same wind fields
observed over the same 600 day period in 1982-83. Calculated wave height
and period compare well with observed wave conditions at the National
Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys.
A comprehensive meteorological data set was assembled for 1994-95 including
approximately 360,000 hourly observations from ISWS air quality monitoring
stations, NOAA buoys, NWS surface stations, Coast Guard stations, and
ship reports. This combined data set was used to generate gridded overwater
fields for wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, dew point, and
cloud cover for the period 1/1/94 to 12/21/95. These fields provided the
input for hydrodynamic model and wave model runs for 1994-5.
An initial run of the wave model was completed for the entire 1994-95 period with the analyzed wind fields. We compared calculated and observed wave characteristics at NDBC buoy locations, which generally will expose any problems with the analyzed wind fields, and found good agreement. We also provided the results from the simulations for use in interpreting the benthic boundary layer measurements made under another GLERL project during this period.
Products
Beletsky, D., W.P. O'Connor, D.J. SCHWAB, and D.E. Dietrich, in
press. Numerical simulation of internal Kelvin waves and coastal upwelling
fronts. J. Phys. Oceanogr.
Beletsky, D., and D.J. SCHWAB, in press. Hydrodynamic modeling
for the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Program. Proceedings, EPA Workshop
on Next Generation Environmental Models Computational Methods.
SCHWAB, D.J., D. Beletsky, W.P. O'Connor, and D.E. Dietrich, 1996.
Numerical simulation of internal Kelvin Waves with z-level and sigma-level
models. In Estuarine and Coastal Modeling, Proceedings of the 4th
International Conference (eds, M.L. Spaulding and R.T. Cheng), Amer. Soc.
Civil Eng., 298-312.
In addition to the above written documents, four scientific presentations
were made under this project.
FY97 Plans
- Determine optimal model configuration for 1994-94 runs based on results of 1982-83 calibration and validation runs. This will provide the most accurate 1994-95 3-d circulation and thermal structure simulations.
- Run hydrodynamic model and wave model with 1994-95 data. These results will be used to drive LMMBS sediment dynamics and water quality models.
- Analyze results of 1994-95 simulations to provide information on transport and resuspension during this period.
- Provide results and documentation of hydrodynamic and wave model simulations to LLRS.
- Continue to assist in coupling the hydrodynamic model to the Level
2 (aggregated spatial segmentation) contaminant fate model and incorporation
of wave model and circulation model results into the particle transport
model.
Great Lakes Geology and Geophysics Data Rescue
- Bathymetry
Principal Investigator: David Reid (734-741-2019; david.reid@.noaa.gov)
Collaborating Scientists: Troy Holcombe (NOAA/NESDIS/National Geophysical
Data Center); Peter Vincent (CILER-University of Michigan); David Divens
(CIRES-University of Colorado)
Much geological and geophysical data have been collected in the Great
Lakes during the last 150 years. Good quality bathymetry data have been
collected since about 1903, when the standard physical datums in use for
bathymetric surveying were first established. Bathymetric data have been
collected principally by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - National Ocean Service
(NOS), and the Canadian Hydrographic Service (CHS). It is estimated that
total data holdings between the U.S. and Canada run to several million
soundings.
In the U.S., about 60% of the good quality bathymetric data resides in
digital form at the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC). The
remaining data are kept in paper survey sheets at the NOAA/National Ocean
Service. While these data have been used to create standard navigation
charts for the Great Lakes, there have not been any efforts in the United
States to produce scientific bathymetric maps for each of the lakes, although
the Canadians have published a Great Lakes bathymetric map series using
their own data. Such maps are important for a variety of uses, including
circulation modeling, such as the Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System ,
determining suitable locations for communications cable crossings and
water intake pipes, and for ecosystem and geochemical studies that use
depth-based station locations (e.g., the EPA Environmental Monitoring
and Assessment Program (EMAP); the EPA Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study
(LMMB); fishery stock surveys based on areas between depth contours).
The objectives of this project are to (1) compile bathymetric data from
the best available sources that are readily available and complete bathymetric
contours at 1 to 5 meter contour intervals to produce manuscript bathymetric
maps for each of the Great Lakes and Lake St. Clair; (2) scan the manuscript
contours into a computer data base as vector and raster data files and
generate final annotated bathymetric maps; and (3) package and publish
the resulting imagery and data and make it readily and widely available
on appropriate media.
By agreement between NOAA and the Canadian Hydrographic Service, to the
extent possible, the combined bathymetric data holdings of the United
States and Canada will be used as the primary data sources for these maps.
FY96 Progress and Accomplishments
The final version of a Lake Michigan bathymetric poster map was sent
to the printer. This marks completion of the Lake Michigan bathymetric
data recovery and also production of our first major product. The poster
map will be routinely available at a 10m contour interval resolution,
but can be special ordered with a 5m contour interval resolution. See
associated web page at: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov
Figure Caption: a low-resolution example of a section
from the new Lake Michigan Bathymetry map. Actual
product is available in 5m and 10m contour intervals.
First draft bathymetric contours at a 1 meter interval for the entire
central and eastern two-thirds of Lake Erie, for all of Lake St. Clair,
and for Thunder Bay, Lake Huron were completed and sent to NGDC for review.
A bathymetric map for western Lake Erie was completed and submitted for
publication.
In response to a request from the National Biological Service, a first
draft was completed for a high resolution bathymetric map of the region
in central Lake Huron called Six Fathom Bank, where the United States
(National Biological Service, now the U.S. Geological Survey, Biological
Resources Division) and Canada are negotiating the establishment of a
lake trout refuge. This bathymetric information will enhance the ability
of the fisheries managers to select the optimal boundaries for the trout
refuge.
Products
Holcombe, T.L., D.F. REID, W.T. Virden, T.C. Johnson, R. De la
Sierra, and D.L. Divins, 1996, Bathymetry of Lake Michigan (Lake Michigan
Bathymetric Poster, Report MGG-11, Product # 1160A01001, available from
the National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA E/GC3 Code 981, 325 Broadway,
Boulder, CO 80303-3328).
National Geophysical Data Center and the Great Lakes Environmental
Research Laboratory, 1996, Lake Michigan Digital Bathymetric data
on CD-ROM, (Product # 1160A27001, available from the National Geophysical
Data Center, NOAA E/GC3 Code 981, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80303-3328).
FY97Plans
- Complete revisions to the Lake St. Clair bathymetric map.
- Merge U.S. bathymetry with Canadian bathymetry from central and eastern Lake Erie to complete the bathymetric map development for Lake Erie.
- Develop draft scientific paper on the bathymetry and geomorphology of Lake Erie.
- Develop draft contours for Lake Huron using all holding from both
the U.S. and Canada.
ERL Research Task: GLERL 3 - CoastWatch
Great Lakes CoastWatch and NOAA Ocean Communications Network (NOCN)
Principal Investigator: George Leshkevich (734-741-2265; george.leshkevich@noaa.gov)
Collaborating Scientist: Songzhi Liu (CILER-University of Michigan)
The objectives of CoastWatch are to provide Federal, state, and local decision makers, and other clients access to near real-time and retrospective NOAA satellite and aircraft observations and other products for the U.S. coastal ocean and Great Lakes. As a CoastWatch Regional Site (CRS), GLERL supports and oversees the operations of the Great Lakes Regional NOCN Node, identifies regional CoastWatch users and their NOAA data needs, and supplies useful products to participants in the Great Lakes CoastWatch Program.
A digital image product suite consisting of 26 images, including satellite derived surface temperature, from the NOAA-12, NOAA-14, and GOES-8 satellites is currently being received over the NOCN Node for use and redistribution. Other products are planned, including turbidity, ocean color, ice mapping etc., many using new satellite sensors such as ADEOS/OCTS (Advanced Earth Observing Satellite / Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor), SeaWiFs (Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor ) and SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar). Research is needed to develop, enhance, and improve the Great Lakes CoastWatch product(s) being distributed, and for the development of new regional products and uses of benefit to GLERL and its local CoastWatch clientele.
Be sure to visit the Great Lakes CoastWatch home page.
FY96 Progress and Accomplishments
The number of Great Lakes CoastWatch users was increased from 41 to 57.
We co-sponsored a Satellite Applications Special Session at the annual meeting of the International Association for Great Lakes Research (IAGLR) and submitted an article in the Marine Technology Society Journal (in press) describing recent Great Lakes CoastWatch SST algorithms, data and products, download times, and applications.
GOES-8 satellite imagery mapped to the Great Lakes CoastWatch is being received hourly and made available to CoastWatch users. RADARSAT pre-release (pre-commissioned) data has been received for testing and analysis and data transfer testing has been carried out to determine optimum data download times once RADARSAT data becomes operationally available.
FY97 Plans
- Recruit new Great Lakes CoastWatch users and support current users
per the CoastWatch Implementation Plan.
- Supply SST images, marine observations, and water level data for the
Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting
System and USACE Storm Damage Assessment models.
- Verify and analyze Great Lakes SST algorithms - implement modified
algorithms if necessary to maintain and/or increase SST accuracy.
- Receive RADARSAT imagery when available and make available to U.S.
Coast Guard and NWS for use in their ice cover monitoring and forecasting
activities.
- Receive ADEOS/OCTS imagery when available and make available to Great
Lakes CoastWatch users.
- Complete migration of CoastWatch machine to UNIX environment to increase
capability and become compatible with other CoastWatch nodes.
- Implement AVHRR "turbidity" and "ice image" products for lakes Superior
and Michigan high resolution images for use in bloom detection and ice
cover monitoring.
- Implement ice cover overlay on Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis
(GLSEA) product.
Great Lakes CoastWatch Product Development and Research
Principal Investigator: George Leshkevich (734-741-2265; george.leshkevich@noaa.gov)
Collaborating Scientists: Barry Lesht (Argonne National Laboratory);
Carolyn Merry (Ohio State University); Chris Brown (NOAA/NESDIS); Robert
Bukata, John Jerome (Canada Centre for Inland Waters); Gary Fahnenstiel
(GLERL); Son Nghiem, Ronald Kwok (Jet Propulsion Laboratory)
The objectives of this project are to evaluate and help validate Great Lakes CoastWatch products, provide input to NOAA/National Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) concerning product needs and development, and conduct research to develop products and uses specific to the Great Lakes region. For example, the Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis (GLSEA), or temperature composite chart, was introduced and is being made available to Great Lakes CoastWatch users and is also available on the Great Lakes CoastWatch home page. The GLSEA is a daily, cloud-free five day running average water temperature chart composited from CoastWatch AVHRR images. These charts were found to be very accurate when compared to buoy data over a year's time.
FY96 Progress and Accomplishments
Obtained funding and formulated plans for "ocean color" development for the Great Lakes with colleagues at Argonne National Laboratory, The Ohio State University, NOAA/NESDIS and the Canada Centre for Inland Waters (CCIW).
Formulated plans with colleagues at Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) for further experiments and data collection for the development of algorithms to classify and map Great Lakes ice cover using RADARSAT data based on a newly funded COP proposal.
Developed and tested the capability to overlay the digital ice cover analysis produced by the National Ice Center on the CoastWatch Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis (GLSEA) map.
Ground truth data were collected on Lake Superior in March 1996 from the USCG Cutter Mackinaw coincident with RADARSAT satellite overpass.
The analysis and evaluation of ERS-1 satellite SAR data for Great Lakes ice cover classification/mapping was completed.
Products
Published article in International Journal of Remote Sensing describing the analysis of ERS-1 satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data and documenting its capabilities for classification and mapping of Great Lakes ice cover.
FY97 Plans
- Initiate development of ocean color algorithms for the Great Lakes
with colleagues from Argonne National Lab., Ohio State University, NESDIS,
and Canada Centre for Inland Waters to enable the derivation of quantitative
maps of chlorophyll from "ocean color" satellite data (e.g. ADEOS/OCTS
and/or SeaWiFS).
- Implement NASA SeaDAS software for SeaWiFS product display and development.
- Continue field ground truth data collection with colleagues from JPL
for use in SAR algorithm development for ice cover classification and
mapping using satellite SAR data (e.g. RADARSAT and/or ERS-2).
- Work on development of SAR ice analysis/mapping algorithms for the
Great Lakes using RADARSAT and or ERS-2 satellite data.
FY96/97 Accomplishments and Plans Cover Page
Research Overview
GLERL home