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Home > Research by Programs > EP
Ecological Prediction
Task Leader: Doran Mason
Highlights
Adaptive Integrated
Framework (AIF): A New Methodology for Managing Impacts of Multiple Stressors in Coastal Ecosystems
We will use the AIF approach as a basis for model development and application to understand
and forecast the cumulative effects of multiple stressors (i.e., climate change,
land use, and invasive species) on fish production, human health
and economics of the Saginaw Bay ecosystem and surrounding region. The goal of this project
is to help identify management actions that will improve water quality and fish production
in the Bay and restore the ecosystem services that are important to the surrounding area.
GLERL
ECOHAB: An Integrated Approach for Monitoring and Modeling
The focus of this program is to increase our understanding of HABs in the Great Lakes in order
to assist the development of predictive models for forecasting Microcystis blooms and
microcystin concentrations. Monitoring and event response will be an important part of any
model development and verification. Remote sensing data is analyzed to help monitor
Microcystis blooms in the Great Lakes. In 2007 a method was developed to predict
Microcystis biomass from remote sensing data (Wynne et al. 2008). In 2008, the
Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Bulletin (Figure 1), was distributed to users throughout the
Lake Erie watershed during the bloom season. This bulletin was based on the satellite method
for determining Microcystis abundance (Wynne et al. 2008) and the Great Lakes Forecasting System.
Current Featured Projects
Implications of Cercopagis and
Bythotrephes to Alewife Recruitment and Stability of the Lake Michigan Pelagic Food Web
This project proposes to develop a general model from experimental observations
of prey selection and feeding for the invading predatory cercopagid cladocerans
Cercopagis pengoi and Bythotrephes longimanus that will
be useful for predicting predatory impact of these cercopagids. The information
will be combined with field observations of population dynamics, production
and spatial distribution of zooplankton and fishes collected in this and
related projects to describe and understand invasion dynamics of Cercopagis and
determine if these cercopagids have disrupted the Lake Michigan food web.
Drinking Water as Route of Exposure to
Microcystins in Great Lakes Communities
This project has direct links to forecasting the effects of toxic Microcystis blooms
in the lower Great Lakes. A prototype model for forecasting Microcystis blooms using
satellite imagery and hydrodynamics modeling has been developed for western Lake Erie and resulted
in a series of ‘HAB bulletins’ put out in late summer 2008. This project will both provide data
to validate the forecasting model as well as identify its utility for a targeted user group,
local water utility managers.
Reproductive and Recruitment
Success of Walleye in the Muskegon River
Existing physical models of walleye recruitment success fail to explain walleye recruitment
failure in the Muskegon River. Information gained from two years of field work for this study
will allow us to quantify and partition sources of mortality that affect egg and larvae survival,
and suggest ways to improve recruitment success.
What are the Causes, Consequences
and Correctives of Fish Contamination in the Detroit River AOC that Cause Health
Consumption Advisories?
The purpose of this work is to identify the causes, consequences and correctives of fish
contamination in the Detroit River that result in health consumption advisories. This
project has the potential to impact government policy regarding the appropriateness of
current tissue trigger-levels and identifying threshold action levels for consumption
advisories. Results of models developed in this study can aid in management decisions by
providing technical guidance in implementing policy and management options aimed at reducing
direct threats to human health.
Relationship Between Great Lakes Ice
Cover and Climate Patterns
Knowledge of the lake ice dynamics and thermodynamics in the Great Lakes associated with
climate patterns is important not only to wintertime navigation and rescue efforts, but
also to prediction of precipitation, lake water level variability, and environmental
preconditioning for phytoplankton and zooplankton blooms. If a statistically significant
linkage between ice conditions and one or more climate patterns can be verified, then a
generalized statistical hindcast model can be developed to predict ice conditions based
on climate pattern indices.
Great Lakes Food Web Diagrams
GLERL has recently developed food web diagrams for all of the Great Lakes and
Lake St. Clair. The major species in each lake are briefly described, along
with a diagram summarizing the ecosystem energy flow (who eats or is eaten by
whom!). These diagrams are based on a model from a paper published in 2003
supported by both NOAA and the Great Lakes Fishery Commission. Summarizing the
model results in diagram form was accomplished by GLERL’s Sea Grant Extension
Educator. They were updated and modified for each lake by a host of researchers.
Complete listing of GLERL Ecological Prediction Program Projects
Data products
IFYLE Cruise Data*
This database includes physical, chemical, and biological data gathered by IFYLE
cruises during 2005. Water chemistry, CTD profiles, fluorometry, zooplankton, fish
trawls and towed instrument measurements are reported here. This data is shared by
scientists participating in the IFYLE project, thus much of it is password-protected
at the current time, but will be released to the general public soon
GRP Map Maker (.pdf)
A User's Guide to Spatial Models of Fish Habitat Combining Acoustic Data
and Bioenergetics Models. GRP Map Maker allows uses to convert data on
fish distribution and on simple environmental measures into measures of
fish growth rate potential, fish maximum potential consumption, and maximum fish growth.
Complete Listing of GLERL Data Products
*Link leads off GLERL's website
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Program Background This research program focuses primarily on key components of the Great Lakes food web and the links between physical, chemical, and biological processes that impact important processes in ecosystem function. Although long-term trends in key components are examined, life history studies and process research are emphasized so that GLERL's expertise can be applied to problems in a variety of ecosystems that are geographically and biologically diverse. Goals: Improve our knowledge and understanding of food web processes and dynamics, and their relationship to environmental quality and living resources in Great Lakes and coastal marine ecosystems. Apply this knowledge better understand the causes, effects, and solutions to problems such as eutrophication, toxic contaminants, nonindigenous species invasions, habitat modification, and climatic variations Recent Publications Dyble, J., G.L. Fahnenstiel, R.W. Litaker, D.F. Millie, and P.A. Tester. Microcystin concentrations and genetic diversity of Microcystis in the lower Great Lakes. Environmental Toxicology 23:507-516 (2008). (.pdf) Fahenstiel, G.L., D.F. Millie, J. Dyble, R.W. Litaker, P.A. Tester, M.J. McCormick, R. Rediske, and D. Klarer. Microcystin concentrations and cell quotas in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron. Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management 11(2):190-195 (2008) Head, J.A., and S.W. Kennedy. Correlation between an in vitro and an in invo measure of dioxin sensitivity in birds . Ecotoxicology DOI:10.1007/S10646-009-0421-3:6 pp.(2009). (.pdf) Liebig, J.R., and H.A. Vanderploeg. Selecting optical plankton counter size bins to optimize zooplankton information in Great Lakes studies. NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-143. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, 16 pp. (2008). (.pdf) Rutherford, E.S. Lake Michigan's tributary and nearshore fish habitats. In The State of Lake Michigan in 2005. D.F. Clapp and W. Horns (Eds.). Great Lakes Fishery Commission Special Publication 08-02. Great Lakes Fishery Commission, Ann Arbor, MI, pp. 7-17 (2008). (.pdf) Pothoven, S.A., S.A. Ludsin, T.O. Hook, D.L. Fanslow, D.M. Mason, P.D. Collingsworth, and J.J. VanTassel. Reliability of bioelectrical impedence analysis for estimating whole-fish energy density and percent lipids. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 137:1519-1529 (2008). (.pdf) Select Brochures Fish Acoustics at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (.pdf) |
