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Home > Research by Programs > PEP
Physical Environment Prediction
Task Leader: David Schwab
Highlights
Saginaw Bay Nowcast
This is a 30-day animation of an imaginary tracer introduced at a constant rate with a
constant decay rate into Saginaw Bay. This nowcast was generated by the GLCFS modeling
system, developed by GLERL and Ohio State over the past decade and now used operationally
by the NWS, the Coast Guard, and others. This physical information is very useful to
resource managers and scientists who are working together to solve some of Saginaw Bay's
water quality problems as part of the Saginaw
Bay Multi-Stressors’ Project.
+ Realtime Nowcasts
Great Lakes Operational
Forecast System (GLOFS)*
The GLOFS provides key physical data which aids navigation, boating, and emergency response.
The pioneering research for the Great Lakes forecast system is the result of a decade of
collaboration between the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and
The Ohio State University. Operational use of the model (since 2006) is facilitated by
NOAA CO-OPS. This automated model-based prediction system provides forecasts of water levels,
currents, and temperatures in the 5 Great Lakes.
+ Read NOAA magazine article*
Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model
GLERL has developed an integrated, spatially distributed, physically-based water quality model
to evaluate both agricultural non-point source loading from soil erosion, fertilizers, animal
manure, and pesticides, and point source loadings at the watershed level.
Great Lakes Resource Shed Maps
The DLBRM is used to produce near real-time resource shed maps for 33 important Great
Lakes watersheds. This utility allows the user to select a specific day and watershed of
interest from July, 2007 to present. The website reveals the water flow (in either % or cm)
contributed from each of 15 days prior to the outflow date. Both spatial and temporal
distribution data are important for water quality modeling and planning purposes.
Current Featured Projects
Huron-Erie Connecting Waterways
Forecast System (HECWFS)
This transient 2D/3D operational model of the Huron-Erie corridor is under development to
address the current hydraulic connection gap that exists in the GLOFS between Lakes
Michigan-Huron and Lake Erie. This model of the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers and
Lake St. Clair offers nowcasts and forecasts of water levels and currents, updated
8 times per day.
Great Lakes Ice Model
using CIOM (Coupled Ice-Ocean Model) in Lake Erie
Knowledge of the lake ice dynamics and thermodynamics in the Great Lakes is important
not only to winter navigation, recreation safety, and rescue efforts, but also to prediction
of lake circulation, water level variability, and environmental preconditioning for
phytoplankton and zooplankton blooms. This model will eventually be incorporated into
the Great Lakes Operational Forecast System.
Great Lakes Hydrometeorological
Database*
This collaborative project was sponsored by the Great Lakes Hydraulics and Hydrology Branch
of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the directory was compiled by NOAA's Great Lakes
Environmental Research Laboratory (NOAA-GLERL). The database was created by and is maintained
at the Great Lakes Information Network (GLIN)*.
This directory features some 20,000 listings of station characteristics for over 11,000 hydrological
and meteorological stations located throughout the Great Lakes region. It is intended as a resource
for determining period of record, types of data collected and data availability. The mapping tool
provides a geographic orientation and allows the database to be searched both by station
characteristics and by location.
Complete listing of GLERL Physical Environment Prediction Program Projects
Data products
Real-time Meteorological
Observation Network
GLERL
established and maintains a network of real-time meteorological stations at exposed coastal
sites around southern Lake Michigan (Chicago, Milwaukee, Kenosha, South Haven and Michigan City)
for the purposes of analyzing the impact of the meteorological data obtained by this network on
nowcasts and forecasts of waves and circulation in the Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System.
+ View Data
Great Lakes Water Levels
Great Lakes
daily water level plots compared with last years levels; monthly Min, Max, and Mean levels.
Great Lakes water levels constitute one of the longest high quality hydrometeorological data
sets in North America with reference gage records beginning about 1860 with sporadic records
back to the early 1800's. These levels are collected and archived by NOAA's National Ocean Service.
Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction System (AHPS) Products (Experimental)
(Based on choosing scenarios
from 1948-1999) On this page are links to plots for monthly values of inflow, outflow, total supply,
mean lake level and other hydrology and meteorology variables for each of the Great Lakes and
Lake St. Clair. Products include 18-month hindcast simulations and 9-month outlooks. Simply click
on a lake in an ImageMap to access the products. These products are updated daily.
Complete Listing of GLERL Data Products
Selected Software products
Derivative Outlook Weights Software
A special-purpose GUI, for using probabilistic meteorology outlooks to
make derivative outlooks. Accompanied by complete updated documentation in a self-installing file.
Next Generation Large Basin
Runoff Model Software
A fast, accurate model of weekly or monthly runoff volumes (with a daily
internal computation interval) with relatively simple data requirements.
+ Downloads
Complete Listing of GLERL Software Products
*Link leads off GLERL's website
Program Background
This program supports research on physical processes in large lakes and the coastal ocean and their relationship to the biology, chemistry, and geochemistry of the ecosystem. This research is used to develop models to identify, forecast, and assist in managing and/or mitigating water quality and natural resource problems. Wind, waves, and thermal structure are primary determinants of water movements, mixing, and circulation in large lakes and (along with tides) in coastal ocean areas. Additionally GLERL conducts studies to identify and improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change and variability on socio-economic frameworks and ecosystem structure and function, including those through intermediate effects such as changes in the water supply of the Great Lakes Basin.
Recent Publications
Beletsky, D., and D.J. Schwab. Climatological circulation in Lake Michigan. Geophysical Research Letters 35(L21604, DOI:10.1029/2008GL035773):5 pp. (2008).
Liu, P.C., H.S. Chen, D.J. Doong, C.C. Kao, and Y.J.G. Hsu. Freaque waves during Typhoon Krosa. Annales Goephysicae 27:2633-2642 (2009). (.pdf)
Schwab, D.J., D. Beletsky, J. DePinto, and D.M. Dolan. A hydrodynamic approach to modeling phosphorus distribution in Lake Erie. Journal of Great Lakes Research 35:50-60 (2009). (.pdf)
Wang, J., M. Jin, J. Takahashi, T. Suzuki, I.G. Polyakov, K. Mizobata, M. Ikeda, F.J. Saucier, and M. Meier. Modeling Arctic Ocean heat transport and warming episodes in the 20th century caused by the intruding Atlantic water. Chinese Journal of Polar Research 19(2):159-167 (2008). (.pdf)
Wang, J., K. Mizobata, H. HU, M. Jin, S. Zhang, W. Johnson, K. Shimada, and M. Ikeda. Modeling seasonal variations of ocean and sea ice circulation in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas: A model-data fusion study. Chinese Journal of Polar Research 19(2):168-184 (2008). (.pdf)
Select Brochures
Great Lakes Ice Cover - Winter 2003 compared with GLERL's 30-Winter Ice Cover Climatology (.pdf)
Meteorological Stations and Web Cams (.pdf)
NOAA CoastWatch Program in the Great Lakes (.pdf)
Real-Time Environmental Coastal Observation Network (RECON) (.pdf)