Historical and modeled monthly values for Lake Erie for the 64 months prior to the forecast outlooks starting 03May2018 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Basin Runoff to Lake (mm) 2013 79.44 58.68 67.99 113.55 90.17 58.45 34.83 17.89 36.50 39.12 61.79 97.33 2014 74.67 71.80 67.03 116.89 48.19 23.86 16.22 29.34 51.29 24.09 38.17 39.84 2015 49.62 19.80 62.98 71.57 22.42 95.18 52.48 11.21 24.57 29.58 30.53 58.21 2016 61.31 68.70 92.32 81.11 47.47 17.89 8.83 14.07 22.66 54.39 24.81 62.02 2017 137.88 84.45 85.64 94.23 131.20 28.39 44.61 11.21 11.69 28.39 136.93 31.97 2018 65.84 107.83 115.94 128.82 - - - - - - - - Total Over-Lake Precipitation (mm) 2013 67.38 50.18 30.27 109.84 60.78 130.61 115.48 68.42 70.95 84.41 56.56 70.23 2014 48.87 51.49 32.72 94.09 74.84 94.33 74.96 72.55 94.57 59.65 47.81 37.20 2015 43.57 24.82 33.86 65.73 91.03 159.55 77.17 65.68 64.13 56.92 46.58 74.42 2016 32.27 51.95 96.81 62.69 56.70 57.30 61.25 104.74 91.04 71.28 43.60 68.85 2017 90.39 47.21 85.11 87.29 131.28 92.38 82.34 54.23 41.01 76.83 106.08 32.91 2018 55.96 80.21 62.53 81.53 - - - - - - - - Total Lake Evaporation (mm) 2013 47.97 29.81 24.03 12.15 26.04 39.64 90.44 101.19 148.99 164.02 173.52 86.65 2014 45.00 20.57 15.06 1.08 4.50 33.23 91.84 95.24 123.94 154.96 154.28 67.38 2015 57.67 34.24 10.74 5.60 18.76 42.85 74.84 122.05 126.22 184.63 128.01 70.47 2016 78.97 29.35 16.45 36.93 29.48 70.14 84.51 116.24 156.61 184.99 147.02 122.18 2017 33.01 22.98 31.76 12.13 36.19 60.14 86.77 128.01 118.31 172.33 148.73 105.76 2018 37.70 16.44 26.01 24.32 - - - - - - - - Total Net Basin Supply to Lake (mm) 2013 98.85 79.05 74.23 211.24 124.92 149.42 59.87 -14.88 -41.54 -40.49 -55.18 80.91 2014 78.54 102.72 84.69 209.90 118.53 84.95 -0.66 6.65 21.92 -71.22 -68.30 9.66 2015 35.52 10.38 86.10 131.69 94.69 211.88 54.81 -45.16 -37.52 -98.13 -50.90 62.16 2016 14.61 91.30 172.68 106.87 74.69 5.06 -14.43 2.58 -42.90 -59.31 -78.61 8.70 2017 195.26 108.69 138.99 169.39 226.28 60.63 40.18 -62.57 -65.61 -67.11 94.28 -40.88 2018 84.10 171.60 152.46 186.03 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Land Air Temperature (C) 2013 -2.44 -3.86 -0.17 7.34 16.71 20.02 22.18 20.78 17.58 11.91 3.43 -2.38 2014 -7.96 -7.37 -1.73 9.04 15.66 21.10 20.44 21.14 16.93 11.31 2.32 1.07 2015 -5.99 -10.24 0.43 9.15 17.59 19.87 21.43 20.82 19.83 11.93 7.79 5.10 2016 -3.00 -0.40 6.06 7.85 15.17 20.91 23.27 23.57 19.69 13.41 7.67 -1.68 2017 -0.43 2.85 2.49 11.93 14.22 20.56 22.06 20.13 18.40 13.76 4.72 -3.45 2018 -4.46 -0.28 0.75 5.39 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Temperature (C) 2013 2.28 0.49 1.39 4.03 12.32 19.04 23.85 23.40 22.49 19.23 12.42 5.57 2014 0.04 0.00 0.00 1.16 9.21 18.66 22.33 23.51 22.67 18.79 12.84 7.45 2015 1.97 0.01 0.15 3.57 12.52 18.93 22.81 23.93 23.00 18.49 13.79 9.45 2016 4.50 2.13 3.87 7.63 13.27 19.84 23.68 25.89 24.21 20.05 14.29 7.29 2017 2.48 1.85 2.46 7.62 12.93 19.15 23.01 23.66 22.21 19.84 13.32 7.33 2018 0.23 0.45 2.17 4.93 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Lake Air Temperature (C) 2013 0.11 -1.14 1.04 5.40 13.01 18.49 22.72 22.24 20.33 16.11 7.98 1.78 2014 -3.85 -4.83 -1.62 4.06 11.07 18.76 21.30 22.25 20.24 15.36 7.61 4.22 2015 -1.64 -6.11 0.06 5.32 13.38 18.32 21.74 22.63 21.21 15.32 10.64 7.15 2016 1.01 1.08 4.36 7.08 13.41 19.28 22.81 24.79 22.18 16.76 11.07 2.75 2017 1.09 1.66 1.87 8.66 12.71 18.71 21.93 22.15 20.13 16.76 8.83 1.96 2018 -1.81 -0.10 1.68 4.86 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Lake Vapor Pressure (mb) 2013 4.89 4.45 5.11 7.01 11.66 17.34 21.42 20.21 17.13 13.08 7.07 5.24 2014 3.65 3.28 4.18 6.54 11.10 17.67 19.32 20.54 17.24 12.18 6.95 6.23 2015 4.10 2.97 4.86 7.12 12.60 17.44 20.20 19.76 18.80 11.61 8.89 7.96 2016 4.78 5.17 6.64 7.56 11.94 16.24 21.34 23.69 18.97 13.17 9.26 5.37 2017 5.54 5.32 5.48 9.00 11.69 16.64 20.61 19.42 17.45 13.29 7.37 5.06 2018 4.26 5.04 5.14 6.52 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Lake Wind Speed (m/s) 2013 6.64 6.45 5.67 5.10 4.02 3.92 4.43 4.88 5.68 6.20 7.88 7.11 2014 6.95 5.51 5.23 4.57 3.98 4.30 4.91 4.64 4.86 5.85 6.64 5.76 2015 6.04 5.36 4.12 4.02 3.72 4.22 4.23 4.90 5.27 6.58 6.58 6.24 2016 6.76 5.79 4.76 5.17 4.16 4.58 4.60 4.98 5.44 6.34 7.03 7.74 2017 5.63 5.28 5.52 4.40 4.84 4.78 4.73 5.23 4.86 6.22 6.61 6.62 2018 6.18 5.13 5.27 5.09 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Lake Cloud Cover (%) 2013 87.23 89.64 85.58 74.40 43.71 51.00 48.39 43.55 47.53 55.71 70.40 81.55 2014 73.32 66.39 59.97 51.37 51.39 45.90 47.32 43.71 44.83 62.48 79.07 79.61 2015 77.10 69.71 59.45 58.33 52.32 57.63 41.00 47.87 39.90 61.26 55.67 74.48 2016 77.19 71.66 67.97 57.80 48.97 40.63 40.39 41.68 42.60 59.71 57.50 83.65 2017 82.97 67.96 73.13 58.20 60.16 47.80 43.52 42.71 41.17 57.81 71.50 75.87 2018 71.19 75.68 56.81 65.03 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Incident SW Radiation (w/m2) 2013 49.68 69.44 104.12 155.73 251.72 248.89 244.65 224.20 175.72 120.88 69.27 46.88 2014 61.03 95.84 143.48 201.77 234.97 261.23 247.65 224.86 179.88 111.57 62.49 48.28 2015 57.61 92.70 144.65 188.67 231.77 232.48 261.89 216.40 189.68 113.28 82.28 51.44 2016 57.65 90.10 132.28 189.82 240.83 274.27 263.47 228.83 185.34 116.26 81.04 45.30 2017 52.53 94.23 123.40 188.56 214.34 256.69 256.03 226.90 186.14 118.15 67.58 50.89 2018 62.40 85.85 149.12 175.51 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Reflection (w/m2) 2013 -5.77 -7.61 -10.41 -15.57 -25.17 -24.89 -24.46 -22.42 -17.57 -12.09 -6.93 -4.69 2014 -12.56 -33.29 -49.36 -29.10 -23.50 -26.12 -24.76 -22.49 -17.99 -11.16 -6.25 -4.83 2015 -5.83 -19.40 -30.18 -18.87 -23.18 -23.25 -26.19 -21.64 -18.97 -11.33 -8.23 -5.14 2016 -5.77 -9.15 -13.23 -18.98 -24.08 -27.43 -26.35 -22.88 -18.53 -11.63 -8.10 -4.53 2017 -5.25 -9.42 -12.34 -18.86 -21.43 -25.67 -25.60 -22.69 -18.61 -11.82 -6.76 -5.09 2018 -9.06 -10.88 -14.91 -17.55 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Net Long Wave Radiation (w/m2) 2013 -50.59 -47.93 -42.24 -33.46 -43.06 -24.04 -17.27 -26.15 -38.76 -50.83 -67.30 -61.40 2014 -68.54 -76.16 -64.81 -43.57 -32.39 -23.90 -24.45 -25.30 -42.59 -49.50 -65.73 -55.83 2015 -66.30 -81.21 -57.09 -42.26 -31.32 -17.70 -27.81 -24.76 -38.63 -51.61 -65.11 -48.43 2016 -64.40 -54.05 -43.37 -52.95 -41.28 -38.50 -23.67 -16.32 -37.12 -48.33 -63.00 -63.35 2017 -46.59 -52.18 -49.55 -38.72 -34.24 -29.16 -23.89 -31.95 -43.34 -48.10 -65.73 -73.95 2018 -61.26 -48.62 -60.88 -49.00 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Latent Heat Flux (w/m2) 2013 -44.69 -30.84 -22.41 -11.69 -24.02 -37.57 -82.54 -92.42 -140.72 -150.42 -165.43 -80.45 2014 -42.32 -22.19 -14.91 -1.05 -4.15 -31.51 -83.96 -86.97 -117.04 -142.12 -147.01 -62.46 2015 -53.70 -35.60 -10.22 -5.38 -17.29 -40.61 -68.39 -111.41 -119.17 -169.37 -121.93 -65.22 2016 -73.37 -29.25 -15.31 -35.39 -27.20 -66.41 -77.16 -105.91 -147.68 -169.49 -139.93 -113.22 2017 -30.75 -23.72 -29.60 -11.61 -33.41 -56.97 -79.26 -116.88 -111.78 -157.95 -141.67 -98.06 2018 -35.29 -17.06 -24.24 -23.37 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Sensible Heat Flux (w/m2) 2013 -26.43 -16.89 -5.91 5.35 -0.90 -2.82 -7.12 -7.48 -18.86 -31.81 -58.84 -49.58 2014 -38.17 -13.30 -2.53 8.37 4.89 0.35 -6.83 -7.66 -16.72 -30.85 -59.53 -30.08 2015 -40.92 -36.76 -1.63 4.46 0.03 -3.69 -5.61 -8.68 -14.55 -33.85 -34.08 -24.62 2016 -45.12 -13.05 -0.21 -7.90 -0.75 -3.69 -4.88 -7.13 -16.90 -33.40 -40.01 -63.72 2017 -18.02 -7.69 -11.86 3.31 -2.61 -3.37 -6.59 -10.85 -15.79 -31.10 -47.73 -60.65 2018 -26.71 -8.41 -4.47 -1.87 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Net Surface Flux (w/m2) 2013 -77.99 -33.84 23.10 100.28 158.05 158.36 109.85 72.04 -45.61 -129.15 -232.79 -150.06 2014 -100.55 -49.06 11.90 136.42 179.73 179.05 104.44 78.94 -19.00 -126.66 -219.34 -105.73 2015 -109.42 -80.25 45.54 126.57 159.61 145.91 131.22 45.33 -6.31 -158.29 -149.91 -93.01 2016 -131.67 -15.48 60.07 74.16 146.94 135.99 128.29 71.89 -41.01 -152.38 -173.45 -201.07 2017 -48.21 1.16 19.95 122.52 121.96 139.64 117.54 39.80 -7.62 -136.11 -197.60 -188.10 2018 -69.95 0.88 44.54 83.53 - - - - - - - - Average Lake-Ice Surface Temperature (C) 2013 -1.30 -1.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 -4.61 -5.41 -2.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 -0.46 -7.23 -1.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 0.00 -0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2018 -2.30 -1.71 0.00 0.00 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Ice Cover (%) 2013 4.33 2.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 28.14 69.99 69.71 12.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 0.33 27.99 31.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2018 12.92 8.28 0.00 0.00 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Lake Heat Storage (cal/10e17) 2013 11.61 6.57 10.36 26.31 52.27 77.46 95.50 107.33 100.07 78.84 41.82 17.15 2014 6.69 5.10 3.91 16.50 46.04 74.53 91.65 104.61 101.57 80.75 45.86 28.48 2015 10.50 5.55 5.69 25.83 52.04 75.24 96.79 104.23 103.22 77.21 53.36 38.07 2016 16.44 14.04 23.92 35.71 59.87 81.50 102.58 114.40 107.87 82.82 55.23 22.18 2017 14.26 14.43 17.71 37.20 57.24 79.45 98.77 105.30 104.09 81.72 50.29 19.37 2018 7.74 7.84 15.16 28.44 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Soil Moisture (cm) 2013 1.61 1.81 0.88 0.39 0.05 0.11 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.97 0.46 1.06 2014 1.10 1.78 1.74 0.75 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.14 0.28 0.59 0.61 2015 0.90 0.97 1.07 0.17 1.65 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.71 0.54 1.34 2016 1.00 1.16 1.26 0.54 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.75 0.20 0.56 1.03 2017 1.20 0.61 1.55 0.69 0.04 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.51 0.61 0.44 2018 0.73 1.60 1.50 0.23 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Groundwater Moisture (cm) 2013 0.69 0.68 0.68 1.33 1.80 1.23 0.76 0.49 0.61 0.65 0.72 0.70 2014 0.78 0.72 1.10 1.40 0.97 0.60 0.50 0.32 0.36 0.34 0.58 0.61 2015 0.49 0.31 0.83 0.96 0.63 0.70 0.43 0.27 0.21 0.39 0.45 0.55 2016 0.57 1.07 1.46 1.36 0.90 0.55 0.34 0.25 0.22 0.38 0.42 0.80 2017 1.31 2.00 1.81 1.60 1.45 0.91 0.54 0.33 0.23 0.32 0.81 0.64 2018 0.94 1.56 1.62 1.81 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Surface Moisture (cm) 2013 0.61 0.76 0.10 0.59 0.22 0.25 0.07 0.04 0.06 0.36 0.09 0.26 2014 0.07 0.27 0.32 0.41 0.06 0.04 0.09 0.03 0.06 0.05 0.22 0.11 2015 0.04 0.02 0.23 0.09 1.16 1.08 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.40 0.16 0.78 2016 0.10 0.36 0.67 0.27 0.04 0.06 0.15 0.05 0.45 0.15 0.26 0.36 2017 0.27 0.37 0.80 0.47 0.24 0.78 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.12 0.25 0.04 2018 0.17 0.92 0.69 0.17 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Snow Pack (cm) 2013 2.73 3.92 3.80 3.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 1.19 2014 2.16 2.75 0.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 2015 1.48 2.87 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.69 2016 1.02 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.77 2017 1.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.48 2018 1.95 0.48 0.05 0.00 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Total Moisture (cm) 2013 5.64 7.17 5.46 5.73 2.07 1.59 0.84 0.57 0.69 1.98 1.58 3.21 2014 4.11 5.52 4.02 2.56 1.05 0.65 0.64 0.36 0.56 0.67 1.39 1.37 2015 2.91 4.17 2.67 1.22 3.44 1.90 0.46 0.29 0.34 1.50 1.20 3.36 2016 2.69 2.82 3.39 2.17 0.95 0.61 0.55 0.34 1.42 0.73 1.24 3.96 2017 4.72 2.98 4.16 2.76 1.73 2.13 0.58 0.39 0.27 0.95 1.67 2.60 2018 3.79 4.56 3.86 2.21 - 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