Historical and modeled monthly values for Georgian Bay for the 64 months prior to the forecast outlooks starting 03May2018 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Basin Runoff to Lake (mm) 2013 110.83 94.45 118.17 268.68 297.14 155.69 76.33 75.47 83.67 116.87 211.75 142.75 2014 113.85 84.10 81.94 282.48 332.93 151.80 82.80 82.37 138.00 212.18 200.54 188.89 2015 145.77 94.02 116.87 283.77 217.79 142.75 83.23 52.18 48.73 65.55 129.38 186.74 2016 140.16 129.38 271.26 329.92 222.53 112.13 66.41 62.96 62.10 89.70 88.41 128.95 2017 125.50 129.38 211.75 398.92 307.49 166.47 116.44 96.17 63.40 106.95 150.51 172.07 2018 131.97 100.48 119.03 212.61 - - - - - - - - Total Over-Lake Precipitation (mm) 2013 74.19 43.14 44.14 97.03 84.27 71.00 79.61 101.63 84.78 106.91 102.42 51.55 2014 57.30 23.28 42.83 88.33 80.14 89.59 90.98 129.72 95.51 154.82 88.86 61.97 2015 40.68 24.02 28.61 78.98 74.56 71.74 51.21 72.28 55.27 69.25 82.18 92.03 2016 71.89 73.64 96.34 53.19 52.86 47.58 82.95 123.51 74.60 76.23 46.23 86.93 2017 70.17 76.69 83.31 113.87 102.39 116.43 102.71 111.17 52.98 102.70 108.18 73.87 2018 168.14 47.64 49.48 126.93 - - - - - - - - Total Lake Evaporation (mm) 2013 67.82 11.61 13.56 14.60 -1.56 -3.56 0.47 19.11 79.28 99.66 149.09 120.34 2014 29.55 6.33 10.38 11.87 -2.12 -4.98 -4.78 9.01 59.61 78.10 147.46 81.84 2015 55.22 6.41 13.80 8.88 -2.26 -3.94 1.53 40.43 67.94 118.61 99.72 102.08 2016 94.19 47.71 18.01 21.95 0.42 3.28 18.00 50.99 85.32 111.94 109.11 168.92 2017 77.31 51.96 46.83 4.29 0.44 0.50 15.69 63.46 65.60 104.34 161.77 140.56 2018 73.56 26.04 24.31 18.15 - - - - - - - - Total Net Basin Supply to Lake (mm) 2013 117.21 125.97 148.74 351.11 382.97 230.25 155.47 157.99 89.17 124.12 165.08 73.96 2014 141.60 101.04 114.39 358.94 415.20 246.38 178.57 203.09 173.90 288.90 141.94 169.02 2015 131.23 111.63 131.69 353.87 294.61 218.43 132.91 84.04 36.06 16.19 111.83 176.68 2016 117.85 155.31 349.59 361.16 274.97 156.42 131.36 135.48 51.38 53.99 25.53 46.95 2017 118.36 154.11 248.23 508.49 409.45 282.40 203.46 143.88 50.78 105.31 96.91 105.39 2018 226.55 122.08 144.21 321.39 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Land Air Temperature (C) 2013 -9.91 -9.95 -4.84 1.06 12.02 16.14 19.00 17.96 13.61 7.80 -2.00 -12.21 2014 -13.71 -13.23 -9.31 1.93 10.84 16.98 17.47 17.46 13.20 7.35 -3.24 -5.71 2015 -12.71 -16.89 -5.55 3.45 12.15 15.63 18.94 18.04 16.17 6.68 2.52 -1.18 2016 -8.83 -7.46 -1.18 2.00 11.86 16.49 19.72 20.19 15.86 8.46 3.82 -5.55 2017 -5.62 -5.20 -4.88 5.42 10.46 16.20 18.57 17.32 15.61 10.15 -0.88 -9.82 2018 -9.92 -8.03 -4.06 -0.14 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Temperature (C) 2013 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 3.44 11.09 17.00 17.08 12.42 7.63 1.92 2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.74 7.01 14.25 14.73 10.82 6.81 2.38 2015 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 4.08 12.52 17.88 17.35 12.01 9.02 6.30 2016 1.81 0.22 0.02 0.71 3.20 10.10 17.36 20.65 18.57 13.94 10.78 6.82 2017 2.26 0.45 0.02 0.89 3.22 9.79 16.57 19.33 17.29 14.12 9.56 5.15 2018 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Lake Air Temperature (C) 2013 -7.13 -8.39 -4.51 0.20 5.03 8.39 13.97 17.63 15.95 10.22 1.93 -7.59 2014 -11.82 -12.72 -8.93 0.23 4.30 7.45 11.05 15.74 14.18 9.33 0.59 -2.72 2015 -9.53 -15.69 -5.02 1.27 4.86 8.38 14.97 18.07 16.89 9.61 5.28 1.50 2016 -4.87 -4.67 -0.70 1.22 6.61 12.55 18.39 20.64 17.89 11.60 7.62 -0.20 2017 -2.32 -2.75 -3.16 2.94 6.18 12.15 17.58 18.91 16.82 12.49 3.98 -3.29 2018 -5.91 -6.18 -2.76 -0.40 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Lake Vapor Pressure (mb) 2013 2.86 2.72 3.39 4.81 6.96 9.38 13.67 16.43 13.78 9.49 5.01 2.51 2014 2.04 1.75 2.39 4.65 6.80 8.87 11.56 15.50 13.05 9.41 4.62 3.91 2015 2.24 1.29 3.25 5.10 7.01 9.48 14.57 17.12 15.24 8.65 6.87 5.37 2016 3.22 3.41 4.71 4.90 7.82 11.81 17.54 19.82 15.89 10.44 8.01 4.31 2017 4.12 3.92 3.69 6.02 7.79 12.14 16.96 17.45 15.05 11.00 5.58 3.59 2018 3.15 3.05 3.56 4.45 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Lake Wind Speed (m/s) 2013 7.90 6.33 6.06 6.05 4.29 3.95 3.83 3.67 5.33 6.89 8.76 8.05 2014 7.48 6.11 5.84 5.42 4.47 4.19 4.22 4.34 5.74 7.13 8.76 7.51 2015 7.49 6.36 5.99 5.17 4.49 4.17 4.12 5.03 5.57 7.47 7.39 7.81 2016 7.74 7.37 5.35 5.38 4.29 4.25 4.28 4.94 5.89 6.94 7.31 9.02 2017 7.48 7.32 6.78 4.87 4.45 4.25 4.27 5.17 5.02 7.05 8.36 8.12 2018 7.80 6.35 5.88 5.66 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Lake Cloud Cover (%) 2013 86.65 85.36 80.58 77.87 60.87 64.83 57.58 55.16 64.73 73.71 81.53 80.87 2014 83.71 76.96 65.06 73.90 67.45 62.90 61.48 64.32 65.90 83.19 87.57 84.23 2015 65.26 56.29 54.48 56.27 54.65 52.40 43.65 56.58 50.93 63.32 65.83 80.58 2016 77.32 76.28 72.23 61.77 57.13 54.40 56.65 56.23 59.00 75.87 69.40 83.42 2017 85.77 78.39 70.23 69.87 70.32 64.90 57.26 59.00 54.37 70.00 85.60 80.58 2018 78.16 72.68 59.74 66.17 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Incident SW Radiation (w/m2) 2013 44.34 72.29 116.07 156.86 227.56 226.08 236.75 210.75 145.55 92.42 49.00 37.89 2014 46.38 82.78 141.16 165.10 212.59 231.02 226.79 191.80 144.27 80.06 45.24 36.23 2015 59.51 105.63 158.71 202.48 243.56 258.17 271.04 208.27 169.18 104.29 60.58 38.17 2016 50.73 83.58 130.56 191.46 237.62 253.03 238.69 208.74 156.96 89.66 58.42 36.44 2017 44.38 81.59 132.55 173.80 204.68 225.88 236.82 202.29 164.16 97.27 46.30 38.14 2018 49.90 87.00 150.43 182.17 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Reflection (w/m2) 2013 -8.89 -30.76 -51.62 -61.77 -36.86 -22.61 -23.68 -21.08 -14.55 -9.24 -4.90 -4.31 2014 -17.50 -37.07 -62.41 -68.41 -53.16 -23.15 -22.68 -19.18 -14.43 -8.01 -4.52 -3.62 2015 -18.64 -46.84 -69.25 -72.40 -34.77 -25.82 -27.10 -20.83 -16.92 -10.43 -6.06 -3.82 2016 -5.07 -16.18 -24.98 -19.15 -23.76 -25.30 -23.87 -20.87 -15.70 -8.97 -5.84 -3.64 2017 -4.44 -8.21 -26.10 -17.71 -20.47 -22.59 -23.68 -20.23 -16.42 -9.73 -4.63 -3.81 2018 -7.29 -30.59 -54.76 -53.21 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Net Long Wave Radiation (w/m2) 2013 -77.01 -75.49 -65.00 -44.36 -28.04 -12.99 -12.00 -16.33 -27.64 -42.54 -70.80 -94.09 2014 -90.36 -96.44 -89.87 -47.44 -25.35 -12.95 -10.95 -6.42 -26.39 -31.16 -70.84 -68.60 2015 -96.21 -115.17 -81.56 -52.62 -33.04 -24.80 -23.23 -15.31 -31.05 -54.88 -64.91 -64.65 2016 -82.03 -71.35 -51.80 -53.99 -32.31 -24.29 -8.66 -7.12 -22.97 -37.92 -55.89 -78.25 2017 -64.30 -63.48 -67.51 -36.81 -24.98 -14.07 -10.40 -15.33 -28.95 -36.91 -66.31 -87.27 2018 -76.99 -77.46 -72.17 -55.97 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Latent Heat Flux (w/m2) 2013 -63.53 -12.80 -14.27 -15.72 1.47 3.42 -0.43 -17.56 -75.26 -92.00 -142.83 -112.14 2014 -28.28 -7.40 -10.81 -12.81 2.07 4.80 4.44 -8.29 -56.72 -72.18 -141.37 -76.23 2015 -52.06 -7.24 -14.40 -9.40 2.14 3.79 -1.41 -37.11 -64.50 -109.48 -95.42 -94.77 2016 -87.77 -47.98 -17.02 -21.17 -0.39 -3.13 -16.53 -46.69 -80.89 -103.18 -104.22 -156.70 2017 -72.02 -53.69 -44.18 -4.14 -0.41 -0.47 -14.41 -58.19 -62.27 -96.16 -154.68 -130.60 2018 -68.78 -27.78 -24.31 -18.52 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Sensible Heat Flux (w/m2) 2013 -71.57 -8.15 -1.40 3.88 8.34 6.80 5.19 1.79 -10.02 -26.82 -89.75 -134.68 2014 -32.92 -3.56 -2.29 4.08 8.96 8.35 7.73 4.30 -7.59 -19.32 -99.97 -69.83 2015 -64.83 -5.19 -1.29 5.82 9.32 7.59 6.10 -0.05 -5.47 -29.42 -45.83 -65.72 2016 -93.00 -46.02 -5.74 -6.24 7.31 6.76 3.79 -0.81 -7.05 -27.24 -42.80 -117.16 2017 -65.97 -46.20 -35.03 7.98 8.07 6.62 3.39 -3.73 -6.49 -21.05 -81.25 -120.97 2018 -82.85 -23.61 -6.51 -2.69 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Net Surface Flux (w/m2) 2013 -176.67 -54.84 -16.14 38.92 172.47 200.72 205.81 157.08 15.86 -80.07 -261.11 -307.78 2014 -122.61 -61.58 -24.13 40.54 145.09 208.09 205.38 162.00 37.72 -51.94 -273.08 -182.39 2015 -172.18 -68.70 -7.72 73.89 187.22 218.96 225.35 133.83 49.35 -102.20 -153.07 -191.77 2016 -217.46 -97.95 31.03 90.90 188.46 207.00 192.93 131.60 27.80 -90.04 -152.22 -321.16 2017 -162.65 -90.04 -40.24 123.12 166.88 195.36 191.28 102.91 48.20 -68.85 -263.09 -305.67 2018 -186.05 -72.39 -7.27 51.81 - - - - - - - - Average Lake-Ice Surface Temperature (C) 2013 -5.94 -8.62 -4.57 -0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.24 2014 -12.68 -12.74 -8.98 -0.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 -9.51 -15.78 -5.14 -0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 0.00 -4.58 -1.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2017 0.00 -0.31 -3.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2018 -3.53 -6.81 -2.93 -1.47 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Ice Cover (%) 2013 26.28 93.29 98.49 84.01 15.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.07 2014 78.82 99.42 97.88 89.68 45.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 57.18 97.98 96.36 73.66 11.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 0.00 24.79 28.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2017 0.00 0.25 26.63 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2018 12.72 71.16 75.51 55.61 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Lake Heat Storage (cal/10e17) 2013 3.60 3.09 2.99 2.30 13.09 36.65 61.61 80.66 82.50 72.77 42.12 6.93 2014 3.81 3.76 3.59 3.07 1.48 25.33 50.24 69.89 74.31 67.99 35.94 13.82 2015 3.66 3.49 3.25 2.20 14.59 40.28 67.61 83.84 89.61 77.20 59.24 35.98 2016 9.61 2.21 1.95 12.62 35.48 59.77 83.17 99.12 102.34 91.40 73.54 34.59 2017 14.87 5.00 0.83 14.35 34.59 57.52 80.71 93.20 98.83 90.46 59.59 22.51 2018 2.73 1.46 0.89 0.42 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Soil Moisture (cm) 2013 6.45 4.95 8.10 17.61 11.36 3.01 1.54 1.06 2.63 7.17 9.08 6.89 2014 5.85 4.74 4.58 17.03 10.85 2.82 1.71 3.53 4.67 10.75 11.01 10.26 2015 7.51 5.78 7.86 15.10 10.52 4.67 0.35 0.77 1.36 5.11 7.76 9.16 2016 7.87 7.09 18.39 15.72 7.91 1.31 0.20 1.16 2.29 5.17 6.67 6.02 2017 6.19 9.09 14.22 18.86 14.14 6.13 1.41 1.97 1.52 5.57 8.53 8.11 2018 7.25 7.40 6.94 23.15 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Groundwater Moisture (cm) 2013 0.48 0.32 0.32 0.48 0.64 0.48 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.48 2014 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.48 0.64 0.48 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 2015 0.48 0.32 0.32 0.48 0.48 0.32 0.32 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.32 2016 0.32 0.32 0.48 0.80 0.64 0.64 0.48 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 2017 0.32 0.32 0.48 0.80 0.96 0.80 0.64 0.48 0.48 0.32 0.32 0.48 2018 0.48 0.32 0.48 0.48 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Surface Moisture (cm) 2013 0.92 0.66 1.13 3.07 1.78 0.88 0.62 0.61 0.63 1.21 1.31 0.85 2014 0.77 0.63 0.60 3.41 1.80 0.87 0.56 1.54 1.04 1.90 1.81 1.39 2015 0.90 0.71 0.95 2.48 1.59 0.95 0.40 0.35 0.37 0.79 1.16 1.27 2016 0.92 0.95 2.80 2.18 1.25 0.59 0.39 0.48 0.63 0.81 1.10 0.91 2017 0.96 1.58 1.90 2.44 1.77 1.26 0.75 0.61 0.48 1.22 1.33 1.05 2018 0.91 1.02 0.96 3.60 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Snow Pack (cm) 2013 9.33 13.38 11.56 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.12 6.53 2014 10.89 12.84 15.69 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 3.45 6.04 2015 10.02 12.42 10.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.73 3.18 2016 8.67 13.61 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.24 2017 9.94 10.76 7.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 3.64 7.36 2018 22.05 24.30 26.96 14.24 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Total Moisture (cm) 2013 17.18 19.31 21.11 22.61 13.78 4.37 2.48 1.99 3.58 8.70 12.83 14.75 2014 17.83 18.53 21.19 21.49 13.29 4.17 2.59 5.39 6.03 13.14 16.59 18.01 2015 18.91 19.23 19.32 18.06 12.59 5.94 1.07 1.28 1.89 6.06 9.81 13.93 2016 17.78 21.97 23.52 18.70 9.80 2.54 1.07 1.96 3.24 6.30 8.09 13.49 2017 17.41 21.75 24.26 22.10 16.87 8.19 2.80 3.06 2.48 7.13 13.82 17.00 2018 30.69 33.04 35.34 41.47 - - - - - - - -