Historical and modeled monthly values for Lake St. Clair for the 64 months prior to the forecast outlooks starting 03May2018 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Basin Runoff to Lake (mm) 2013 652.75 561.93 869.86 922.37 431.38 320.70 183.05 126.29 265.36 192.99 334.89 560.52 2014 600.25 256.84 637.14 1355.17 445.57 210.02 183.05 163.19 283.81 127.71 475.37 776.21 2015 353.34 93.66 688.23 970.61 258.26 444.16 140.48 110.68 99.33 371.78 332.05 625.79 2016 506.59 593.15 1498.49 1068.53 303.67 288.06 80.88 173.12 102.17 245.49 251.17 553.42 2017 939.40 688.23 1133.80 1376.46 824.45 156.09 93.66 89.40 59.60 143.32 773.37 341.99 2018 808.84 1024.54 1072.78 1690.06 - - - - - - - - Total Over-Lake Precipitation (mm) 2013 84.14 62.19 49.19 120.14 99.60 99.13 125.66 68.12 99.84 76.74 70.82 74.23 2014 61.43 53.95 70.53 81.69 101.35 94.11 114.98 95.33 111.33 71.08 78.31 79.05 2015 64.82 47.34 31.08 88.60 82.23 144.71 73.97 76.60 91.20 85.85 70.29 101.18 2016 57.82 88.45 150.02 54.20 70.23 86.88 102.07 152.32 94.29 71.04 64.34 109.70 2017 97.16 72.32 120.93 96.97 131.87 80.41 56.48 83.61 41.24 87.49 111.25 84.18 2018 126.56 76.30 71.35 104.21 - - - - - - - - Total Lake Evaporation (mm) 2013 35.63 31.04 28.92 41.68 113.33 153.27 200.03 145.35 137.87 98.97 46.64 37.98 2014 79.12 59.14 44.63 54.09 97.38 161.26 201.13 150.43 125.57 85.26 53.79 15.25 2015 63.35 73.13 44.63 58.75 111.96 152.33 177.64 174.18 138.14 93.67 44.61 13.12 2016 43.74 30.30 28.77 75.59 99.82 187.80 188.89 181.09 154.60 88.95 41.60 40.67 2017 25.68 24.91 44.13 62.58 106.20 173.23 183.42 171.10 121.21 101.66 32.31 43.17 2018 50.74 25.73 45.43 49.25 - - - - - - - - Total Net Basin Supply to Lake (mm) 2013 701.26 593.08 890.14 1000.83 417.65 266.56 108.68 49.06 227.33 170.75 359.07 596.77 2014 582.56 251.65 663.04 1382.77 449.54 142.86 96.91 108.09 269.57 113.54 499.89 840.01 2015 354.80 67.86 674.68 1000.46 228.53 436.54 36.81 13.10 52.39 363.97 357.74 713.85 2016 520.67 651.31 1619.75 1047.14 274.08 187.14 -5.94 144.35 41.85 227.58 273.90 622.44 2017 1010.87 735.64 1210.60 1410.85 850.12 63.28 -33.28 1.91 -20.37 129.15 852.31 383.00 2018 884.67 1075.10 1098.71 1745.02 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Land Air Temperature (C) 2013 -2.41 -4.28 -0.34 6.26 14.47 18.19 21.49 20.03 16.65 11.29 2.69 -4.20 2014 -8.78 -8.82 -4.17 6.65 13.54 19.60 19.87 19.89 16.09 10.63 1.66 -0.18 2015 -7.56 -12.06 -1.51 6.53 15.29 17.77 20.24 20.16 18.88 10.62 6.45 3.43 2016 -3.86 -2.16 2.89 5.50 13.60 18.64 21.70 22.31 18.36 12.00 6.61 -2.47 2017 -2.36 -0.36 -0.19 9.14 12.52 18.96 20.99 19.26 17.33 12.83 3.18 -5.16 2018 -6.19 -2.90 -0.41 3.68 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Temperature (C) 2013 0.22 0.29 1.24 7.87 18.52 24.19 27.99 25.61 21.99 16.14 4.73 0.18 2014 0.18 0.25 0.96 9.11 18.25 25.37 25.77 25.34 22.00 14.32 4.05 0.34 2015 0.12 0.11 2.79 9.83 19.37 23.76 26.41 25.47 24.04 13.62 8.36 2.95 2016 0.35 0.84 4.50 9.44 17.93 24.40 27.55 28.66 24.60 16.62 8.41 1.12 2017 0.47 1.51 2.69 11.97 16.99 24.22 27.35 25.66 22.94 17.35 5.30 0.83 2018 0.30 0.93 2.92 6.91 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Lake Air Temperature (C) 2013 -1.47 -2.03 0.35 7.39 17.17 22.23 25.89 23.94 19.83 14.02 3.83 -1.98 2014 -5.73 -5.52 -1.75 8.51 16.59 23.45 23.74 23.55 19.58 12.84 2.87 0.83 2015 -4.40 -7.56 0.99 9.24 18.07 21.74 24.69 23.87 22.23 12.78 7.77 3.86 2016 -1.97 -0.34 4.41 7.77 16.42 22.99 26.18 27.03 22.51 14.72 7.98 -0.73 2017 -0.67 1.46 1.82 11.26 15.45 22.81 25.49 23.73 20.68 15.44 4.89 -2.19 2018 -3.16 -0.73 1.44 5.47 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Lake Vapor Pressure (mb) 2013 4.42 4.12 4.76 7.88 13.95 19.59 24.30 21.16 16.87 12.43 6.14 4.17 2014 3.11 2.90 3.93 7.81 13.73 19.98 19.53 20.83 17.18 11.24 5.70 5.32 2015 3.29 2.51 4.67 8.26 15.34 19.26 21.24 20.76 20.15 10.84 8.29 6.91 2016 4.08 4.67 6.80 7.37 13.36 17.01 23.35 25.72 20.12 13.47 8.75 4.65 2017 5.06 5.38 5.42 10.14 12.99 18.91 23.03 20.79 19.18 13.93 6.82 4.18 2018 3.98 4.91 4.98 6.56 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Lake Wind Speed (m/s) 2013 5.94 5.91 5.70 5.69 5.31 5.54 5.35 5.00 5.08 5.39 6.18 5.70 2014 7.38 6.47 5.87 5.56 5.21 5.39 5.59 5.05 4.99 5.57 6.39 5.00 2015 6.64 6.84 5.58 5.57 5.28 5.68 5.27 5.46 5.18 5.95 5.52 5.05 2016 6.26 6.02 5.20 5.90 5.28 5.54 5.51 5.28 5.40 5.37 5.19 6.30 2017 5.26 5.48 6.16 5.92 6.02 5.90 5.29 5.37 4.81 5.78 5.26 5.72 2018 6.34 5.47 6.28 5.70 - - - - - - - - Average Over-Lake Cloud Cover (%) 2013 79.52 82.89 78.77 72.73 48.94 54.73 49.74 44.23 46.97 44.23 61.97 77.84 2014 68.35 60.93 58.68 60.30 54.03 50.30 47.97 46.32 44.83 62.71 75.17 75.74 2015 71.32 62.50 53.87 63.93 56.77 59.47 38.48 49.71 39.60 57.48 49.53 75.81 2016 73.35 68.66 70.19 52.67 44.39 43.83 47.65 42.26 43.83 52.19 51.50 77.16 2017 79.87 63.50 63.87 63.70 60.39 49.17 45.03 47.00 40.23 61.00 70.07 67.13 2018 66.52 70.71 58.35 63.73 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Incident SW Radiation (w/m2) 2013 55.55 76.83 114.44 158.90 239.58 239.77 241.51 222.90 176.63 135.64 75.84 49.30 2014 64.85 101.91 145.81 183.70 228.94 250.41 246.01 219.66 180.42 110.97 65.90 50.82 2015 62.34 100.92 152.92 176.26 221.69 227.89 267.66 212.81 189.83 118.13 87.75 50.66 2016 60.58 93.18 129.15 200.02 250.89 266.37 246.71 228.12 184.02 125.23 86.04 49.44 2017 54.66 98.85 136.92 177.53 213.67 253.28 252.58 217.88 187.68 113.99 68.89 56.62 2018 65.31 91.07 146.53 178.12 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Reflection (w/m2) 2013 -5.56 -7.68 -11.44 -15.89 -23.96 -23.98 -24.15 -22.29 -17.66 -13.56 -7.58 -4.93 2014 -6.48 -10.19 -14.58 -18.37 -22.89 -25.04 -24.60 -21.97 -18.04 -11.10 -6.59 -5.08 2015 -6.23 -10.09 -15.29 -17.63 -22.17 -22.79 -26.77 -21.28 -18.98 -11.81 -8.77 -5.07 2016 -6.06 -9.32 -12.91 -20.00 -25.09 -26.64 -24.67 -22.81 -18.40 -12.52 -8.60 -4.94 2017 -5.47 -9.88 -13.69 -17.75 -21.37 -25.33 -25.26 -21.79 -18.77 -11.40 -6.89 -5.66 2018 -6.53 -9.11 -14.65 -17.81 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Net Long Wave Radiation (w/m2) 2013 -59.80 -62.30 -56.10 -46.47 -48.28 -28.47 -19.49 -31.14 -46.02 -62.09 -61.59 -63.98 2014 -87.19 -91.94 -77.29 -55.90 -46.77 -30.95 -36.55 -30.97 -48.17 -48.05 -57.40 -48.80 2015 -80.37 -99.30 -74.73 -52.24 -37.31 -25.64 -36.86 -28.11 -39.62 -50.44 -61.67 -41.32 2016 -67.53 -62.54 -49.52 -68.57 -54.26 -45.19 -19.61 -18.56 -38.45 -50.60 -57.76 -61.00 2017 -54.22 -58.46 -61.60 -46.03 -43.45 -32.90 -25.49 -31.89 -44.61 -42.91 -52.35 -73.15 2018 -74.81 -62.14 -69.70 -62.03 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Latent Heat Flux (w/m2) 2013 -33.27 -32.08 -26.98 -39.93 -103.99 -144.51 -181.83 -132.48 -130.16 -90.96 -44.79 -35.46 2014 -73.87 -61.12 -41.65 -51.70 -89.33 -151.92 -183.23 -137.13 -118.56 -78.47 -51.65 -14.24 2015 -59.15 -75.60 -41.57 -56.11 -102.57 -143.68 -161.75 -158.70 -130.26 -86.24 -42.69 -12.22 2016 -40.83 -30.23 -26.74 -72.25 -91.64 -177.04 -171.81 -164.55 -145.70 -81.73 -39.80 -37.94 2017 -23.97 -25.72 -41.12 -59.64 -97.58 -163.32 -166.86 -155.90 -114.42 -93.38 -31.00 -40.28 2018 -47.37 -26.60 -42.31 -47.21 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Sensible Heat Flux (w/m2) 2013 -24.61 -22.34 -10.15 -6.54 -17.46 -15.73 -17.56 -11.22 -18.72 -19.91 -13.77 -28.88 2014 -88.77 -62.67 -30.82 -8.77 -12.39 -14.04 -16.75 -12.68 -18.40 -15.87 -23.51 -2.84 2015 -59.66 -95.33 -20.48 -7.63 -14.80 -17.53 -12.62 -12.96 -15.73 -14.86 -9.68 -0.06 2016 -30.81 -18.73 -7.76 -21.84 -12.13 -12.38 -10.52 -12.00 -18.22 -18.90 -9.93 -26.46 2017 -18.86 -10.60 -19.89 -10.41 -15.44 -13.43 -14.19 -15.28 -18.33 -20.22 -8.20 -34.74 2018 -50.77 -21.45 -16.72 -15.43 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Surface Net Surface Flux (w/m2) 2013 -67.68 -47.59 9.72 49.55 42.61 21.05 -10.37 19.99 -41.06 -53.48 -52.28 -83.96 2014 -191.49 -124.04 -18.58 48.09 54.69 21.88 -23.29 10.95 -27.40 -44.56 -73.69 -20.14 2015 -143.09 -179.41 0.66 41.63 41.32 12.36 22.30 -15.28 -20.18 -47.41 -35.69 -8.05 2016 -84.68 -27.67 31.99 16.14 64.97 -2.31 11.95 2.08 -42.96 -40.89 -30.66 -80.96 2017 -47.87 -5.87 0.46 42.37 33.00 11.48 12.91 -13.87 -12.96 -56.68 -29.86 -97.26 2018 -114.19 -28.23 2.95 35.10 - - - - - - - - Average Lake-Ice Surface Temperature (C) 2013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2018 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - - - - - - - Average Lake Ice Cover (%) 2013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2018 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Lake Heat Storage (cal/10e17) 2013 0.02 0.02 0.12 0.46 0.76 0.91 0.83 0.97 0.69 0.31 0.00 0.01 2014 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.43 0.82 0.97 0.80 0.88 0.69 0.38 0.04 0.02 2015 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.41 0.71 0.79 0.95 0.84 0.70 0.37 0.12 0.06 2016 0.01 0.07 0.30 0.41 0.88 0.86 0.95 0.96 0.66 0.37 0.16 0.00 2017 0.00 0.14 0.21 0.50 0.74 0.82 0.91 0.81 0.72 0.32 0.11 0.00 2018 0.00 0.15 0.17 0.41 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Soil Moisture (cm) 2013 2.59 2.21 1.42 0.76 0.26 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.02 1.20 0.46 0.98 2014 1.15 1.24 1.83 1.73 0.31 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.28 0.52 1.06 1.36 2015 1.11 0.75 1.62 1.41 2.04 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.77 0.93 1.70 2016 1.43 2.54 3.04 0.82 0.24 0.01 0.01 0.04 1.06 0.40 0.86 1.15 2017 1.36 1.58 3.04 1.26 0.45 0.08 0.00 0.08 0.03 0.29 0.92 0.82 2018 1.54 3.23 2.36 1.43 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Groundwater Moisture (cm) 2013 1.65 1.59 1.69 2.20 1.66 1.13 0.76 0.50 0.72 0.67 0.84 1.43 2014 1.34 1.14 1.80 1.50 1.24 0.79 0.68 0.57 0.71 0.53 0.94 1.02 2015 0.88 0.55 1.34 1.25 0.90 1.07 0.67 0.49 0.36 0.62 0.77 1.10 2016 1.21 1.34 1.99 1.76 1.18 0.81 0.52 0.50 0.50 0.70 0.72 1.17 2017 1.83 1.80 1.94 1.88 1.79 1.09 0.68 0.56 0.37 0.60 1.30 1.00 2018 1.59 2.65 2.29 2.46 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Surface Moisture (cm) 2013 1.32 0.62 0.42 0.34 1.00 0.07 0.37 0.02 0.19 0.41 0.12 0.42 2014 0.15 0.27 0.66 0.86 0.12 0.03 0.18 0.02 0.08 0.17 0.67 0.71 2015 0.12 0.06 0.71 0.84 0.70 0.38 0.04 0.02 0.56 0.65 0.54 0.99 2016 0.29 1.35 3.32 0.17 0.11 0.06 0.16 0.08 0.32 0.29 0.47 0.71 2017 0.39 1.64 1.79 0.41 0.20 0.19 0.02 0.09 0.04 0.16 0.54 0.09 2018 0.63 2.27 2.25 0.62 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Snow Pack (cm) 2013 0.00 2.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.09 2.70 2014 3.98 7.04 6.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.06 2015 4.40 9.07 2.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.81 2016 2.52 3.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.35 2017 4.96 3.72 3.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 6.02 2018 9.78 3.85 2.95 0.00 - - - - - - - - End-of-Month Basin Total Moisture (cm) 2013 5.56 6.85 3.53 3.30 2.92 1.22 1.18 0.57 0.93 2.28 3.51 5.53 2014 6.62 9.69 10.55 4.09 1.67 0.83 0.94 0.59 1.07 1.22 2.87 3.15 2015 6.51 10.43 6.55 3.50 3.64 1.61 0.71 0.51 1.42 2.04 2.35 4.60 2016 5.45 8.24 8.35 2.75 1.53 0.88 0.69 0.62 1.88 1.39 2.05 7.38 2017 8.54 8.74 9.89 3.55 2.44 1.36 0.70 0.73 0.44 1.05 2.92 7.93 2018 13.54 12.00 9.85 4.51 - - - - - - - -