GLERL Publications Abstracts: FY 1976

Publications List Key
Capitalized names represent GLERL authors.
* = Not available from GLERL.
** = Available in GLERL Library only.




ADAMS, C.E., Jr. Estimating water temperatures and time of ice formation on the Saint Lawrence River. Limnology and Oceanography 21(1):128-137 (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1976/19760009.pdf

Monthly mean heat losses from the surface of the St. Lawrence River during the fall-winter cooling period were determined by an empirical heat budget which incorporated the processes of radiation, conduction, convection, and precipitation. Calculations indicate that the heat loss can be reasonably represented by a simple linear relation with air-water temperature differential. It is suggested however, that the coefficient of proportionality changes with variations in the ratio of radiation to evaporation. An equation was evaluated which relates surface heat loss to temperature decline along the international section of the river. Within the limits of accuracy of the heat loss calculations, the equation provides adequate estimates of water temperature changes for the period of study. The water temperature decline equation was used as the basis for developing a prediction technique which enables river freeze-up estimates to be made as early as 1 October. When observed freeze-up dates were used, predictions for a 6-year period (1965-1970) yielded standard deviations of 4.7, 3.3, and 3.5 days for predictions starting at the beginning of October, November, and December. Observed freeze-up occurred within 2 days of the predicted date in 4 of the 6 years examined. Experimental predictions for two additional years yielded similar results.

ASSEL, R.A. St. Lawrence River freeze-up forecast procedure. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL GLERL-6, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-256-100/9GI) 50 pp. (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/tech_reports/glerl-006/

A standard operating procedure (SOP) is presented for calculating the date of freeze-up on the St. Lawrence River at Massena, N.Y. The SOP is based on two empirical temperature decline equations developed for Kingston, Ont., and Massena, N.Y., respectively. Input data needed to forecast freeze-up consist of the forecast December flow rate and heat flux for the St. Lawrence River and the water temperature at Kingston, Ont., on the forecast initiation date. Forecasts are made October 1, October 15, November 1, November 15, December 1, and December 15.

AUBERT, E.J. Great Lakes. In 1976 McGraw-Hill Yearbook of Science and Technology, D.N. Lapedes (ed.). McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, 200-204 (1976).

No abstract.

AUBERT, E.J. The energy-related Great Lakes research program of the Department of Commerce. Proceedings, Second Federal Conference on Great Lakes, J.S. Marshall (ed.), Great Lakes Basin Commission, Ann Arbor, MI, 480-492 (1976).

No abstract.

*AUBERT, E.J., H.E. Allen, J.D. Roseborough, and A.E.P. Watson. Great Lakes water quality research needs, 1976. International Joint Commission, Windsor, Ontario, Canada, 121 pp. (1976).

No abstract.

Baer, F., D.B. RAO, and D. Boudra. Studies on numerical modeling and modification of cyclone scale precipitation. Report prepared by the University of Michigan for the U.S. Army Research Office under Contract No. DAHC04-73-C-0001. 62 pp. (1976).

A fine-mesh limited area model has been developed both to predict precipitation over a limited geographic region, and to be utilized in experiments with precipitation modification. The model utilizes the primitive equations, incorporates fifteen levels in the vertical and has a basic grid length of 80 km. It shows many of the features of current models of its type, but lacks resolution in the boundary layer. Lateral boundary conditions are specified when needed from a data set which also provides initial conditions and comparisons for the forecasts. Finite-difference integrations are performed but spectral techniques are studied. Forecasts with the model show some fidelity to observations but some short-comings also. Setting one integration as a control, a number of experiments were performed with model modifications and compared to the control. In all cases, modification did not substantially alter the flow field over a 24 hour period. Precipitation forecasts were altered however. By reducing condensation related to cloud top temperature, implying lack of freezing nuclei, regions of marginal precipitation showed almost no precipitation. With enhanced condensation based on cloud seeding these regions showed significant increase in precipitation. The addition of carbon black to the model for heating did not show substantial changes in precipitation. Modified initial conditions based on poor (coarse grid) resolution had a significant effect on precipitation predictions.

BOLSENGA, S.J. Lake Huron surface water temperature, May-November 1966. Water Resources Bulletin 12(1):147-156 (1976).

Data from seven vessel cruises from late May to early November permitted definition of the surface water temperature regime of Lake Huron on a monthly basis. Quantitative values are furnished for a portion of the warming, stable, and cooling periods. The lowest temperatures occurred near the center of the lake, southwest of Manitoulin Island, and at De Tour Passage. The highest temperatures occurred at the mouth of Saginaw Bay and in the southernmost portions of the lake. Comparison of the surface water temperatures with temperatures in the 21 - 30 m layer shows the heat storage lag characteristic of large lakes.

BOLSENGA, S.J., and J.C. HAGMAN. On the selection of representative stations for Thiessen polygon networks to estimate Lake Ontario over-water precipitation. IFYGL Bulletin 16:57-62 (1975).

No abstract.

BOLSENGA, S.J., and D.C. NORTON. Eastern Lake Ontario precipitation network. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL GLERL-5, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-253-134/1GI) 52 pp. (1975). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/tech_reports/glerl-005/

No abstract.

Bradbury, J.P., S.J. TARAPCHAK, J.C.B. Waddington, and R.F. Wright. The impact of a forest fire on a wilderness lake in northeastern Minnesota. Verhandlungen-Internationale Vereinigung Fur Theoretische und Angewandte Limnologie 19:875-883 (1975).

No abstract.

Callahan, C.J., J.A.W. McCulloch, E.J. AUBERT, and E.M. Rasmusson. IFYGL rawinsonde data acquisition system. IFYGL Technical Manual No. 6, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI 38 pp. (1976).

No abstract.

CHAPRA, S.C. Comment on 'An Empirical Method of Estimating the Retention of Phosphorus in Lakes' by W.B. Kirchner and P.J. Dillon. Water Resources Research 11(6):1033-1034 (1975).

No abstract.

DERECKI, J.A. Evaporation from Lake Erie. NOAA Technical Report ERL 342-GLERL 3, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-248-300/6GI) 79 pp. (1975). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/tech_reports/glerl-003/

The monthly evaporation from Lake Erie was derived by the water budget, two mass transfer, energy budget, and two combined mass transfer-energy budget equations. The period of record varies with the availability of data, from 32 years for the water budget and mass transfer methods to 17 years for the other methods. Evaporation determined by a single method is not sufficiently reliable and requires verification of accuracy by different methods. Only the water budget method determines evaporation directly, as a residual from other measurements, and it was used as a control for other estimates of evaporation. The overall analysis of results indicates that reasonably accurate evaporation estimates during the year can be obtained by the water budget and the modified Lake Hefner mass transfer equations, and during the high evaporation season by the energy budget equation. The combined mass transfer-energy budget equations produced evaporation estimates which are considered to be of much lower accuracy.

DERECKI, J.A. Hydrometeorology: Climate and hydrology of the Great Lakes. In Great Lakes Basin Framework Study, Appendix 4: Limnology of Lakes and Embayments, A.P. Pinsak (ed.). Great Lakes Basin Commission, Ann Arbor, MI, 71-104 (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1976/19760013.pdf

No abstract.

DERECKI, J.A. Multiple estimates of Lake Erie evaporation. Journal of Great Lakes Research 2(1):124-149 (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1976/19760004.pdf

Evaporation from large lakes cannot be measured directly, but several methods have been developed to compute lake evaporation. Because of the Great Lakes data limitations, evaporation determined by a single method is not sufficiently reliable and requires verification of accuracy by different methods. Monthly evaporation from Lake Erie was derived by the water budget, selected mass transfer, and the energy budget approaches. The period of record varies with the availability of data, 1937-68 for the water budget and mass transfer methods, and 1952-1968 for the energy budget method. Evaporation determined by the water budget method was used to provide control for the other methods. The evaporation rates varied from -9 to 25 cm/month with periods of low, median, and high annual evaporation averaging approximately 80, 90 and 100 cm. The analysis of results indicates that reasonably accurate evaporation estimates during the year can be obtained by the water budget and the modified Lake Hefner mass-transfer equations.

GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LABORATORY. Annual Report for the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, FY 1976. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, 33 pp. (1976).

No abstract.

GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LABORATORY. Technical plan for the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, 181 pp. (1976).

No abstract.

GRUMBLATT, J.L. IFYGL--An unusually cold year. IFYGL Bulletin 18:59-62 (1976).

No abstract.

HAGMAN, B.B. An analysis of Great Lakes ice cover from satellite imagery. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL GLERL-9, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-261-835/3GI) (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/tech_reports/glerl-009/

Remotely sensed satellite data present a synoptic view of the distribution and extent of the Great Lakes ice cover. Although there are several reasons for extracting ice-cover information from satellite imagery, the major reason is the desire to extend the navigation season on the Great Lakes. One method of obtaining this type of information is to measure satellite transparency density and then correlate calculated surface reflectance with ice-cover concentration. But the use of transparencies presents several difficulties, such as the problem of variable film densities. Because of the variability inherent in satellite transparencies and inaccurate ground verification data, it is desirable to find a better method of extracting ice-cover information.

HAGMAN, B.B. On the use of microwave radiation for Great Lakes ice surveillance. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL GLERL-13, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-271-480/1GI) 11 pp. (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/tech_reports/glerl-013/

With the desire to extend the Great Lakes shipping season to year-round operation comes the need for up-to-date information on ice conditions. One method being investigated uses microwave (radar) remote sensing for ice surveillance. Microwave systems are advantageous because they can penetrate cloud cover, operate day or night, and provide greater areal coverage at aircraft altitudes than can optical systems. For ice surveillance, radar "sees" a world of edges and interfaces that correspond (in gray tones) to relative amounts of backscattered radiation. Radar has been shown effective in classifying certain ice types, conditions, and features, and for aiding ships in ice-covered waters or during severe weather. Future microwave studies should concentrate on making various radar systems operational, collecting and correlating ground verification data with radar data, and investigating the use of satellite platforms for microwave remote sensing.

Ischinger, L.S., and T.F. NALEPA. Freshwater macroinvertebrates. Journal of Water Pollution Control Federation 48(6):1318-1335 (1976).

No abstract.

KELLEY, R.N. Lake St. Clair beginning-of-month water levels and monthly rates of change of storage. NOAA Technical Report ERL 372-GLERL 13, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-261-834/6GI) 12 pp. (1976).

Lake St. Clair water level gage data are used to determine beginning-of-month water levels and monthly rates of storage change for the years 1910 through 1975 for scientific and planning purposes. Analysis of the results indicates that additional gages, strategically located, are needed for improved accuracy.

LESHKEVICH, G.A. Great Lakes ice cover, winter 1974-75. NOAA Technical Report ERL 370-GLERL 11, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-261-833/8GI) 39 pp. (1976).

From ice-cover data received at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory during the past winter, twenty composite ice charts were produced to illustrate estimated ice distributions and concentrations on the Great Lakes at weekly intervals from mid-December, 1974, through the end of April, 1975. According to the definitions of mild, normal, and severe winters set forth by Rondy (1971), freezing degree-day accumulations indicate that the 1974-75 winter was near normal for Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron, but between mild and normal for Lakes Erie and Ontario. Accumulations were near their seasonal maximum near mid-April on northern portions of the Great Lakes and at mid-March on southern portions, except for Cleveland, where maximum accumulation occurred in mid-February. Skim ice was reported in late November and early December at various sites around the Great Lakes. By mid-December ice had formed on bays and protected areas of northern Lake Superior, the lower St. Marys River, Green Bay, and Saginaw Bay, as well as along the southern shore of Lake St. Clair. Ice growth continued on these and other protected shore areas until the week ending December 29, when substantial melting occurred on the southern portion of the lakes. It wasn't until near mid-January that rapid and extensive ice growth took place, especially on the northern lakes. Ice growth continued through mid-February, when ice covers reached their maximum extent on all the lakes with the exception of Lakes Superior and Ontario, where they occurred near mid-March. Maximum ice extent was estimated to be 30 percent on Lake Superior, 25 percent on Lake Michigan, 45 percent on Lake Huron, 80 percent on Lake Erie, and 16 percent on Lake Ontario. Warmer temperatures during the latter part of February caused significant loss of ice on all of the Great Lakes. Increases and decreases in ice cover resulted in little net change in ice extent through mid-March. The latter part of March brought a week of warm temperatures and the end of significant ice growth on the lakes. Last reports of ice on the northern lakes came during the latter part of April.

LIU, P.C. An evaluation of parameters for the theoretical distribution of periods and amplitudes of sea waves. Journal of Geophysical Research 81(18):3161-3162 (1976).

In this note, parameters used in characterizing the theoretical joint distribution of the periods and amplitudes of sea waves are evaluated in connection with an empirical fetch-limited wave energy spectrum formula derived from wave data recorded in the Great Lakes. The results show that the spectral width parameter obtained from the empirical formula justifies the narrow spectrum approximation used in the theoretical distributions. Further empirical data show that the average wave periods calculated from an energy spectrum are quite close to those estimated from the statistical data.

LIU, P.C., and T.A. Kessenich. IFYGL shipboard visual wave observations vs. wave measurements. Journal of Great Lakes Research 2(1):33-42 (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1976/19760005.pdf

Data used for this study were collected in Lake Ontario during 1972, the International Field year for the Great Lakes (IFYGL). Shipboard meteorological observations, which include visual estimates of wave height and wave period, are made in the Great Lakes by over 100 ships from the United States and Canada. Data collected from these ship reports cover a wide range of lake conditions and hence provide a useful basis for climatological studies of surface waves in the Great Lakes. The objective of this paper is to present an assessment of the reliability of these ship reports. Records from deep water wave gauges were compared with shipboard observations made within 50 km of the gauges. The results show that visually estimated wave heights, Hvo, and wave periods Tvo, are correlated with the recorded significant wave heights, Hs, and average zero-crossing wave periods, Tz, respectively by Hs = (0.25 + 0.6 Hvo) meters and Tz = (2.0 + 0.2 Tvo) seconds. Visual observations appear to substantially underestimate the steepness of the waves. Long-term distribution for wave heights and wave periods follow the log-normal distribution quite closely. These results are generally similar to those of oceanic studies.

LIU, P.C., G.S. MILLER, and J.H. SAYLOR. Water motion. In Great Lakes Basin Framework Study, Appendix 4: Limnology of Lakes and Embayments, A.P. Pinsak (ed.). Great Lakes Basin Commission, Ann Arbor, MI, 119-149 (1976).

No abstract.

McNaught, D.C., and D. SCAVIA. Application of model of zooplankton composition to problems of fish introductions to the Great Lakes. In Modeling Biochemical Processes in Aquatic Ecosystems, R.P. Canale (ed.). Ann Arbor Science, Ann Arbor, MI, 281-304 (1976).

No abstract.

MILLER, G.S. Harbor and nearshore currents, Oswego Harbor, New York. NOAA Technical Report ERL 360-GLERL 7, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-254-651-3GI) 25 pp. (1976).

Lagrangian current measurements were made in Oswego Harbor and in the nearshore area of Lake Ontario close to the harbor during the latter 2 weeks of the months of June, August, and October 1972. Currents within the harbor are primarily a function of Oswego river inflow modified by wind stress; speeds up to 50 cm/sec were observed in the harbor during anomalously high river inflow during June. Nearshore currents, responding rapidly to changes in wind stress, in turn determine the path of the harbor effluent during peak flows (spring) the turbid plume extends up to 3 km into the lake whereas during low flows (fall) the plume often does not reach the detached breakwall before being swept away by the nearshore current. Outflow from the river is buoyant during spring and summer and frequently sinks below the warmer lake water during fall months.

Mortimer, C.H., D.B. RAO, and D.J. SCHWAB. A supplementary note and figure added to paper. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, A: Mathematical and Physical Sciences 281:58-60 (1976).

No abstract.

NORTON, D.C. Upland lakes. In Great Lakes Basin Framework Study, Appendix 4: Limnology of Lakes and Embayments, A.P. Pinsak (ed.). Great Lakes Basin Commission, Ann Arbor, MI, 351-372 (1976).

No abstract.

PICKETT, R.L. Intercomparison of Canadian and U.S. automatic data buoys. Marine Technology Society Journal 9:20-22 (1975).

In 1972 adjacent Canadian and U.S. automatic data buoys of different design recorded wind, air and water temperatures, and currents in western Lake Ontario. Means and standard deviations of their data differences show design accuracies are not generally achieved, and suggest the limits of data from such buoys.

PICKETT, R.L. Lake Ontario temperature and current profiles. IFYGL Bulletin 18:53-55 (1976).

No abstract.

PICKETT, R.L. Lake Ontario circulation in November. Limnology and Oceanography 21(4):608-611 (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1976/19760010.pdf

A Lake Ontario current meter study during November 1972 showed counterclockwise circulation with higher speeds in the western portion of the lake. Results from wind-driven numerical models run for the comparison agreed in the western section, but shoed a clockwise gyre in the eastern portion of the lake.

PICKETT, R.L. Lake-averaged temperatures and currents in Lake Ontario in 1972. IFYGL Bulletin 15:57-58 (1975).

No abstract.

PICKETT, R.L., and S. BERMICK. Lake Ontario mechanical energy. IFYGL Bulletin 18:56-58 (1976).

No abstract.

PICKETT, R.L., and B.J. EADIE. Lake Ontario mean surface temperature. IFYGL Bulletin 17:59 (1976).

No abstract.

PICKETT, R.L., and F.P. RICHARDS. Lake Ontario mean temperatures and currents in July 1972. Journal of Physical Oceanography 5:775-781 (1975).

Monthly mean air and water temperatures and winds and currents were calculated for Lake Ontario for July 1972 from data collected during the International Field Year for the Great Lakes. The mean air temperature pattern was similar to the lake surface temperature pattern except in the northwestern part of the lake due to warm air around Toronto. Surface water temperatures showed warm water (>19oC) along the south-central shore and cold pocket (16oC) in the northwest. A subsurface cold pocket also occurred near the middle of the lake. Maximum perturbations of the mean temperature field occurred near the surface and thermocline at the lowest frequencies (<0.02 cycle h-1). The diurnal temperature signal was significant near the surface, and the inertial signal was significant near the thermocline. Winds were from the west at about 3 m s-1. In response, the thermocline tilted from 5 m along the northwestern shore to 14 m along the southern shore of the lake. Monthly resultant currents indicated cyclonic flow at all depths and a northbound flow off Rochester in the region of a bottom ridge. Observed currents were consistent with geostrophic calculations. Maximum current perturbations occurred near the surface at the lowest frequencies and at the inertial frequency.

*PINSAK, A.P. (Editor). Great Lakes Basin Framework Study, Appendix 4: Limnology of Lakes and Embayments. Great Lakes Basin Commission, Ann Arbor, MI, (1976).

No abstract.

*PINSAK, A.P. Physical characteristics. In Great Lakes Basin Framework Study, Appendix 4: Limnology of Lakes and Embayments, A.P. Pinsak (ed.). Great Lakes Basin Commission, Ann Arbor, MI, 27-69 (1976).

No abstract.

**PINSAK, A.P., and T.L. MEYER. Environmental baseline for Maumee Bay. Great Lakes Basin Commission, MRB Series No. 9 :164 (1976).

As part of the Great Lakes Basin Commission Maumee River Basin Level B planning study initiated in 1973 to identify and evaluate critical issues, goals, and management alternatives and to prepare short- and long-range action plans, the interrelationship of Maumee Bay with basin runoff and with Lake Erie was established. Effects of recommended management strategies were tested trough application of a simulation model consisting of vertically integrated time averaged hydro-dynamic equations encompassing the entire Lake and a mass balance equation for two-dimensional diffusion and transport. Dissolved constituents from the dominant Maumee River diffuse rapidly upon entry into the Bay, and the circulation characteristics cause concentrations to remain higher than average in the northwest sector. In general, concentrations do not decrease to Lake background in Maumee Bay but remain evident in western Lake Erie. Increase in tributary influx would create a disproportionate increase in dissolved solids in the Bay; conversely, decrease in tributary influx below Lake background would cause encroachment of Lake Erie water. Nutrient levels are high in the bay and will remain high after goals for point source discharge are accomplished. Forty-one hour sediment settling time results in high turbidity throughout Maumee Bay and transport of most introduced sediments into the main Lake. An environmental goal of 50 percent reduction in suspended material in the Bay would require 60 percent reduction of inorganic sediment loadings. Modifications in the Maumee River basin will have a positive effect on western Lake Erie, but must be above a minimum level related to flushing and assimilative capacity to affect Maumee Bay. In addition to environmental effects, goals must be evaluated in relation to objectives, potential for achievement, cost, and conflicting interests.

QUINN, F.H. Detroit River flow characteristics and their application to chemical loading estimates. Journal of Great Lakes Research 2(1):71-77 (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1976/19760006.pdf

Unsteady flow characteristics were analyzed at the Windmill Point, Fort Wayne, Wyandotte, and Fermi sections of the Detroit River using two hydraulic transient mathematical models. Both models consist of the complete one-dimensional equations of continuity and motion and were calibrated using discharge measurements taken during the 1963-1973 period. The models were used to generate hourly, daily, and monthly flows for the year 1968. A statistical analysis was make of these flows at the Fort Wayne and Fermi sections. The flows at the Fort Wayne section were found to be representative of the entire river on a monthly basis and on a daily basis under most conditions. Individual section flows are necessary for use on an hourly basis or under Lake Erie wind, tide and seiche conditions. Application of flows to computation of Detroit River chloride loadings shows entirely different loading phenomena for both base and peak loadings between the upper and lower river. It also illustrates the danger of computing yearly loadings based upon a limited number of samples for the lower river.

QUINN, F.H. Effect of Fort Gratiot and St. Clair gage relocations on the apparent hydraulic regime of the St. Clair River. GLERL Open File Report, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (1976).

No abstract.

QUINN, F.H. Lake Ontario beginning-of-month levels and changes in storage. IFYGL Bulletin 15:59-65 (1975).

No abstract.

QUINN, F.H. Lake St. Clair hydrologic transfer factors. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL GLERL-10, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-266-420/9GI) 16 pp. (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/tech_reports/glerl-010/

Monthly hydrologic transfer factors were developed for Lake St. Clair for the period 1950-1974 to aid in the comparison and coordination of St. Clair and Detroit River monthly flows. The transfer factor is defined as the sum of the monthly precipitation and runoff minus the evaporation and change in storage. Each of the hydrologic constituents were determined independently from available data.

QUINN, F.H., and J.A. DERECKI. Lake Erie beginning-of-month water levels and monthly rates of change of storage. NOAA Technical Report ERL 364-GLERL 9, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-256-816/0GI) 34 pp. (1976).

This report describes the results of a study of Lake Erie beginning-of-month water levels and monthly changes of storage. The study established that the number and distribution of water level gages in the presently existing gage network are adequate for the computation of beginning-of-month water levels. Computed beginning-of-month water levels and changes of storage for the period 1900-1974 are listed for use in scientific and planning studies.

QUINN, F.H., and J.A. DERECKI. Lake Ontario beginning-of-month water levels and monthly rates of change of storage. NOAA Technical Report ERL 365-GLERL 10, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-256-782/4GI) 27 pp. (1976).

This report describes the results of a study of Lake Ontario beginning-of-month water levels and monthly changes of storage. The study established that the number and distribution of water level gages in the presently existing gage network are adequate for the computation of beginning-of-month water levels. Computed beginning-of-month water levels and changes of storage for the period 1900-1974 are listed for use in scientific and planning studies.

RAO, D.B., C.H. Mortimer, and D.J. SCHWAB. Surface normal modes of Lake Michigan: Calculations compared with spectra of observed water level fluctuations. Journal of Physical Oceanography 6(4):575-588 (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1976/19760001.pdf

Periods and structures of several normal modes of Lake Michigan (including Green Bay) are calculated theoretically, taking into account the Lake's topography and the earth's rotation. The calculations are based on a Galerkin method developed by Rao and Schwab (1976). Even though the calculations give both rotational and gravitational modes, attention is focused primarily on the later. The calculations show that there are several modes dominant in the main basin of Lake Michigan and some dominant in Green Bay. The lowest Lake Michigan mode has a period of 9.27 h. Green Bay exhibits a (co-oscillating or Hemlholts) mode with a period 10.35 h. For the modes dominant in the main basin, the periods and structures obtained from theoretical calculations are compared to those deduced from spectral analyses of water level data from various stations around the Lake. The agreement is found satisfactory for several of the lowest modes.

RAO, D.B., and D.J. SCHWAB. Two-dimensional normal modes in arbitrary enclosed basins on a rotating earth: Application to Lakes Ontario and Superior. Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, A: Mathematical and Physical Sciences 281:63-96 (1976).

A method for determining the free periods of oscillation of an arbitrary enclosed homogeneous water body on a rotating earth is considered. Bathymetry and shape of the water body are taken into account. The oscillations are quasi-static and horizontally two dimensional. Analytical foundation of the theory is based upon a method developed by Proudman (1916). The method requires the construction of two sets of orthogonal functions; one set satisfies a condition of vanishing normal derivative on the boundary and the other set of functions have a zero value on the boundary. These orthogonal functions are numerically constructed for two real water bodies. The numerical orthogonal functions are used as a basis for the expansion of velocity and height fields. the expansion coefficients are then determined so as to satisfy the dynamical equations. The coefficients appear as eigenvectors of a Hermitian matrix. The corresponding eigenvalues represent the frequencies of oscillation. Structures are determined by numerical evaluation of the velocity and height field expansions.
Application of the above procedure to Lake Ontario gives for the lowest gravitational mode a period of 5.11 h and for Lake Superior, the period of the corresponding mode is 7.86 h. Periods of the lowest six gravitational modes and their structures in both lakes are presented. Comparison of Lake Superior calculations with the data analysis of Mortimer & Fee (1976, preceding paper) shows very good agreement. A few examples of rotational modes are also presented.

ROBERTSON, A. Plankton-mediated transport of energy-related pollutants. Proceedings, Second Federal Conference on the Great Lakes, J.S. Marshall (ed.), Great Lakes Basin Commission, Ann Arbor, MI, 351-360 (1976).

Many methods have been suggested to generate energy to meet our society's needs now and in the future. Each method has advantages and drawbacks and each, to a greater or lesser extent, will have an effect on the natural environment. Most of these methods being seriously considered entail the release of certain pollutants to the environment. The materials are released directly by the generating process itself and indirectly by the activities involved in acquiring and processing the needed raw materials, in shipping these to the generation site, and in transmitting the energy to the user. After release, the pollutants follow certain pathways and become distributed in the various components of the environment in a definite way. This paper attempts to briefly review the current status of our knowledge and the future needs for research concerning the transport of these pollutants by the planktonic component of aquatic systems, with special emphasis on the situation in the St. Lawrence Great Lakes.

ROBERTSON, A., and B.J. EADIE. A carbon budget for Lake Ontario. Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. 19:291-299 (1975). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1975/19750002.pdf

Although the cycling of carbon within and through lake systems is obviously of
utmost significance to these systems, few attempts have been made at the calculation of
a carbon budget for a lake. TAKAHASHI et al. (1968) and SCHINDLER et al. (1973) have
determined the carbon budget for two small North American lakes and O'MELIA (1972)
provides a preliminary estimate of this budget for the larger Swiss Vierwaldstattersee.
" However, there seem to have been no attempts to estimate the carbon budget for a very
large lake. During 1972 and early 1973 the United States and Canada conducted an intensive,
interdisciplinary study on Lake Ontario. This program, entitled the International Field
Year for the Great Lakes (IFYGL), provided a great deal of data on many different
limnological and meteorological properties. Taking advantage of this large body of data,
we have calculated the carbon budget for the IFYGL period (EADIE & ROBERTSON 1974).
While this is the first carbon budget for a large lake, it applies only to one year which is
known to have been rather atypical, being much cooler and wetter than normal. Thus,
the study reported in this paper was conducted to determine a more generalized carbon
budget for Lake Ontario and to compare the results to those obtained during the
intensive IFYGL study.

ROGERS, J.C. Evaluation of techniques for long-range forecasting of air temperature and ice formation. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL GLERL-8, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-259-695/5GI) 24 pp. (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/tech_reports/glerl-008/

Four techniques for making long-range air temperature forecasts were evaluated by using wintertime (November through February) data from around Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan. The purpose of the evaluation was to find a technique for forecasting air temperature which could be applied to ice forecasting on the Lakes. The four techniques analyzed were: (1) the use of cycles and oscillations (2) the extrapolation and kinematic process used by the National Meteorological Center which results in forecasts in the Average Monthly Weather Outlook (3) conditional probabilities (4) a Markov chain equation. The analysis of techniques (1) and (4) consisted of predicting a monthly mean temperature and comparing the standard error of estimate (SE) of the difference between predicted and actual temperatures to the SE for climatological predictions. The evaluation of techniques (1), (2), and (3) also consisted of predicting monthly temperature categories and then comparing them to one another. The forecast categories were below normal, normal, and above normal temperatures.
Based on the evaluations, it was found that only the quasi-biennial oscillation [technique (1)] category forecasts and the Average Monthly Weather Outlook [technique (2)] category forecasts predicted with any skill. Individually, the accuracy of the techniques is only slightly better than chance; however an improved temperature forecasting system for application to ice forecasting could be established by combining them.

ROGERS, J.C. Long-range forecasting of maximum ice extent on the Great Lakes. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL GLERL-7, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-259-694/8GI) 15 pp. (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/tech_reports/glerl-007/

A technique, based on prewinter thawing and wintertime freezing degree-days, has been developed for making long-range forecasts of the percent maximum ice extent on the Great Lakes. The number of thawing degree-days is known by early winter, but the crux of the technique is to predict the number of freezing degree-days that will accumulate by march 3, the average date of maximum ice extent on the Lakes during the last 13 winters. This was accomplished by using the average March 3 accumulated freezing degree-day value from both the large and small ice extent winters between 1962-63 and 1968-69, which alternate in a quasi-biennial cycle. The equations and freezing degree-day prediction method were then used to hindcast maximum ice extent on the Lakes during the winters 1969-70 to 1974-75. The results indicated that the regression equation forecasting technique was more accurate than climatology forecasts on Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron. On Lake Ontario, it was found that climatology forecasting the best technique. The effect on the technique of the apparent climatic warming during the most recent winters is also discussed. Another technique, which simply applied the average percent maximum ice extent during the alternating relatively cold and relatively warm winters, was also better than climatology, but was not as accurate or versatile as the regression equation method.

ROGERS, J.C. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern north Pacific and associated wintertime atmospheric fluctuations over North America, 1960-73. Monthly Weather Review 104(8):985-993 (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1976/19760002.pdf

Data on monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) over the eastern North Pacific as well as surface pressure and 1000-500 mb layer thickness over North America during the period 1960-73 were analyzed. Factor analysis of the SST data, used to find areal patterns of anomalous SST in the ocean, revealed that while three large regions dominated the eastern North Pacific from 1960 to 1970 there was a change, possibly during 1971, resulting in the predominance of a new region called the southwestern oceanic region. At nearly the same time there was noted a reversal in the tendency toward abnormally cold winters throughout the eastern United States. Fluctuations pressure and thickness over North America associated with anomalous periods of warm and cold water in the original three SST cells were then analyzed. The east-central North Pacific and Gulf of Alaska regions were found to be associated with statistically significant fluctuations in pressure near the Gulf of Alaska and in thickness over west-central Canada. The southeastern oceanic region was associated with statistically significant fluctuations in pressure near the Pacific anticyclone and in thickness over a large area centered on the Arctic archipelago.

ROGERS, J.C., B.H. DeWitt, and D. Dixon. Operational ice forecast for the Little Rapids Cut. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL GLERL-4, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-250-069/2) 17 pp. (1975). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/tech_reports/glerl-004/

An operational 5-day forecast procedure was developed for predicting the initial date of ice-related problems at the Little Rapids Cut and the continuing degree of difficulty the Sugar Island Ferry would experience in crossing the St. Marys river at that point. The forecast procedures were developed by use of meteorological and hydrological data, aerial photographs of ice cover, and time lapse films of the motion of jammed ice toward the Sugar Island Ferry crossing. Intense warm and cold spells have many ramifications. For example, it was found that ice problems had generally begun within 10 days after the water temperature in the river had reached 32oF. Once ice problems began, the degree of difficulty in crossing the river, expressed in three probability categories, was forecast daily, based upon air temperatures, upstream ice cover, and shipping activity. Results of the operational-experimental forecast of the onset date of problems during the 1974-75 winter are presented. Also, shipping activities in January and February were largely responsible for the ice problems, but there are difficulties in applying the shipping factor in the forecast procedure. It was found that, with the continuation of shipping and accumulation of over 850 freezing degree-days, the Sugar Island Ferry was often not able to cross the river without icebreaker assistance.

SAYLOR, J.H., and P.W. SLOSS. Water volume transport and oscillatory current flow through the Straits of Mackinac. Journal of Physical Oceanography 6(2):229-237 (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1976/19760003.pdf

Currents flowing through the Straits of Mackinac were recorded for a period of nearly 100 days during the summer and fall of 1973. Current meters were placed at four moorings on a north-south cross section at the Straits' narrowest constriction and arranged to measure vertical profiles of horizontal current velocity. The mean water volume transport from Lake Michigan to Lake Huron was measured at nearly 1900 m3 s-1. Seasonal variations in the vertical structure of the mean current flows are related to density stratification of the water mass. Spectral analyses of the current records revealed many periodic features of the flow field which were superimposed on the mean discharge. The periodic components are identified and correlated with oscillations of water level in the Michigan and Huron lake basins.

SCAVIA, D., C.W. Boylen, R.B. Sheldon, and R.A. Park. The formulation of a generalized model for simulating aquatic macrophyte production. International Biological Program Eastern Deciduous Forest Biome Memo Report 75-4 :18 (1975).

A model simulating macrophyte production has been formulated based on the reduction of Pmax by various loss terms: respiration, excretion, mortality, sloughing, and grazing. Functions include morphological changes influenced by depth, variations in fruiting habits, overwintering productivity, and sediment preference. Four dissimilar species have been chosen for model calibration and validation to assure a generalized model capable of predicting macrophyte dynamics under diverse conditions. The model has been initially developed to describe the processes of macrophyte production and mortality as part of a larger detritus formation and nutrient cycling model in the littoral zone of Lake George.

SCAVIA, D., B.J. EADIE, and A. ROBERTSON. An ecological model for the Great Lakes. Proceedings, Conference on Environmental Modeling and Simulation, W.T. Ott (ed.), Cincinnati, OH, April 19-22, 1976. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 600/9-76-016, Washington, DC, 629-633 (1976).

No abstract.

SCAVIA, D., B.J. EADIE, and A. ROBERTSON. An ecological model for Lake Ontario: Model formulation, calibration, and preliminary evaluation. NOAA Technical Report ERL 371-GLERL 12, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-262-412/0GI) 63 pp. (1976).

A simulation model describing the dynamics of four types of phytoplankton, six types of zooplankton, detritus, organic nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, available phophorus, the carbonate system, and benthic invertebrates has been developed for the Lake Ontario ecosystem. The equations are described. The ecological model is driven by a physical model designed to predict average temperature, segment thicknesses, and vertical diffusion coefficients for the three-layer model. In addition, an original formulation for calculating sedimentation rates is shown to accurately predict community settling rates. The simulated processes and predicted variables follow ecologically realistic patterns and compare favorably to measured parameters in Lake Ontario. Sensitivity analyses revealed that modeled phosphorus was quite responsive to changes in diffusion, sedimentation was critical to predicting benthic dynamics, and self-shading by phytoplankton was not critical due to the relationship between light limitation and phosphorus depletion. Changes in temperature resulted in predicted shifts in the peaks of the phytoplankton and zooplankton, and the sensitivity of the model to fish predation indicated the need for better descriptions of fish dynamics.

SCAVIA, D., and B.J. EADIE. The use of measurable coefficients in process formulations--Zooplankton grazing. Ecological Modeling 2:315-319 (1976).

This paper redefines a construct previously used to model phytoplankton--zooplankton interactions in such a way as to permit the use of measurable quantities as construct coefficients. The new construct can use unaltered values of the half-saturation constant for zooplankton grazing on total available food (ks) and the minimum food concentration necessary to stimulate effective feeding (BMIN) reported in the literature. Typical values for these coefficients are 0.1--15 and 0.016--0.19, respectively.

SCAVIA, D., and R.A. Park. Documentation of selected constructs and parameter values in the aquatic model CLEANER. Ecological Modeling 2:33-58 (1976).

Process representations critical to the phytoplankton and zooplankton submodels are described. These include constructs for: light- and nutrient-limitations and their interaction, temperature, consumption, and population-age structure. Values for key parameters are documented with reference to the literature on aquatic ecology and ecological modelling. Time-course relationships of the processes affecting the phytoplankton, zooplankton, phosphorus and nitrogen compartments are presented and discussed. These serve as additional documentation and are an important result of modelling synthesis.

SLOSS, P.W., and J.H. SAYLOR. Large-scale current measurements in Lake Superior. NOAA Technical Report ERL 363-GLERL 8, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-256-815/2GI) 48 pp. (1976).

Analyses of current meter data collected in Lake Superior in 1967 and 1973 show a general counterclockwise circulation covering most of the lake. Currents near the shore are strong - exceeding 10 cm s-1 for a half-month vector average - and generally parallel to the isobaths. Open-lake currents show strong periodic motions at the local inertial frequency. An interesting periodicity is seen in the currents between Isle Royale and the northern shore. Oscillatory components observed there are driven by inertial motions when the lake becomes thermally stratified in late summer, but in spring they show periodicities related to the first and sixth free surface modes of the lake. Other persistent features of the measured flow patterns are the Keweenaw Current and a general strengthening of summertime flows as the lake becomes stratified.

SLOSS, P.W., and J.H. SAYLOR. Large-scale current measurements in Lake Huron. Journal of Geophysical Research 81(18):3069-3078 (1976). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1976/19760011.pdf

Reanalysis of the data from the 1966 Great Lakes-Illinois River Basin Project (GLIRBP) of the Federal Water Pollution Control Administration (FWPCA) reveals some of the large-scale persistent summertime circulation patterns in Lake Huron. The greatest density of data from the original 45 current meter moorings covers June-August 1966, when some 21 stations returned synoptically significant data from current meters at depths of 10 and 15 m. From this somewhat sparse sample it is deduced that at 10-m depth a counterclockwise circulation dominates the northern two thirds of the lake. The shallower southern portion shows a more complex pattern, with generally southward flow along the shorelines on both sides and a return flow northward near the center line of the southern basin. This latter pattern may decay later in the summer, but the data become too patchy for definite analysis. The data set from 15-m depth indicates similar circulations. Spectral analysis of currents at individual stations reveals a strong inertial rotation of the current vector at open lake sites. Only the data from the Straits of Mackinac lack the inertial component and are dominated by the lunar semidiurnal tide and the seiches of Lake Michigan.

SLOSS, P.W., and J.H. SAYLOR. Measurements of current flow during summer in Lake Huron. NOAA Technical Report ERL 353-GLERL 5, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI (PB-253-130/9GI) 39 pp. (1975). https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/tech_reports/erl-353-glerl-05/tr-erl353-glerl-05.pdf

Reanalyses of the data from the 1966 Great Lakes-Illinois River Basin Project (GLIRBP) of the (then) Federal Water Pollution Control Administration (FWPCA) reveal some of the large-scale, persistent summertime circulation patterns in Lake Huron. The greatest density of data from the original 45 current meter moorings covers June through August 1966, when some 21 stations returned synoptically-significant data from meters at depths of 10 and 15 m. From this somewhat sparse sample, it is deduced that at 10-m depth a counterclockwise circulation dominates the northern 2/3 of the lake. The shallower southern portion shows a more complex pattern, with generally southward flow along the shorelines on both sides and a return flow northward near the centerline of the southern basin. This latter pattern may decay later in the summer, but the data become too patchy for definite circulations. Spectral analysis of currents at individual stations reveals a strong inertial rotation of the current vector at open-lake sites. Only the data from the Straits of Mackinac lake the inertial components and are dominated by lunar semidiurnal tide and the seiches of Lake Michigan.

VANDERPLOEG, H.A., R.S. Booth, and F.H. Clark. A specific activity and concentration model applied to cesium-137 movement in a eutrophic lake. In Radioecology and Energy Resources, Ecological Society of America, Special Publication No. 1, C.E. Cushing, Jr (ed ). Dowden, Hutchinson, and Ross, Stroudsburg, PA, 164-177 (1975).

A linear systems-analysis model which simulates time-dependent dynamics of specific activity and concentration of radiocesium in lake ecosystems was applied to a shallow, eutrophic lake that had received a pulse input of 137Cs. Best estimates of transfer coefficients for abiotic compartments (sediment, interstitial water and lake water) and the macrophyte compartment which controlled the mass balance of cesium in water were determined by "tuning" our initial estimates of the transfer coefficients to observed data on 137Cs concentrations and contents of these compartments. In most cases, the optimized transfer coefficients for the abiotic compartments were not greatly different from our independently derived initial estimates and the simulations for optimized coefficients were close to those based on initial estimates. The 137Cs concentrations in water as predicted by the optimized transfer coefficients were then used to calculate 137Cs kinetics in biota other than macrophytes. In general, model simulations were close to concentrations observed in the biota. The agreement between 137Cs concentrations and simulations in bottom invertebrates supported our assumption that bottom sediments are not a major source of Cs to the biota. Our specific activity and concentration model was compared to the radionuclide content model, the model used in terrestrial ecosystems. For biotic components of aquatic ecosystems, values of aij, the transfer coefficients of our model, are easily estimated from turnover rates of radiocesium in individual organisms in the laboratory. Values of lij, transfer coefficients of the radionuclide content model, are estimated from aij but require, in addition, estimates of compartment biomasses, information which for most aquatic ecosystems is neither available nor easily obtained.

VANDERPLOEG, H.A., and R.S. Booth. Interpretation of biological-rate coefficients derived from radionuclide content, radionuclide concentration, and specific activity experiments. Health Physics 31:57-59 (1976).

No abstract.

VANDERPLOEG, H.A., D.C. Parzyck, W.H. Wilcox, J.R. Kercher, and S.V. Kay. Bioaccumulation factors for radionuclides in freshwater biota. Report ORNL-5002, UC-11-Environmental and Earth Sciences Division, Publication No. 783. Environmental Sciences Division, Oakridge National Laboratory, 222 pp. (1975).

This report analyzes over 200 carefully selected papers to provide concise data sets and methodology for estimation of bioaccumulation factors for tritium and isotopes of strontium, cesium, iodine, manganese, and cobalt in major biotic components of freshwater environments. Bioaccumulation factors of different tissues are distinguished where significant differences occur. Since conditions in the laboratory are often unnatural in terms of chemical and ecological relationships, this review was restricted as far as possible to bioaccumulation factors determined for natural systems. Because bioaccumulation factors were not available for some shorter-lived radionuclides, a methodology for converting bioaccumulation factors of stable isotopes to those of shorter-lived radionuclides was derived and utilized. The bioaccumulation factor for a radionuclide in a given organism or tissue may exhibit wide variations among bodies of water that are related to differences in ambient concentrations of stable-element and carrier-element analogues. To account for these variations, simple models are presented that relate bioaccumulation factors to stable-element and carrier-element concentrations in water. The effects of physicochemical form and other factors in causing deviations from these models are discussed. Bioaccumulation factor data are examined in the context of these models, and bioaccumulation factor relations for the selected radionuclides are presented.

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