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Data disclaimer: NOAA/GLERL is not an operational center. We make every effort to ensure accuracy and minimize downtime, however, we cannot guarantee that data and products will always be available and/or accurate. Our forecasts and products should be considered experimental. NOAA/GLERL is not an operational center. We make every effort to ensure accuracy and minimize downtime, however, we cannot guarantee that data and products will always be available and/or accurate. Our forecasts and products should be considered experimental. Please review our disclaimers.

Experimental Biophysical Forecast for Lake Michigan CSMI 2021

Click here to see the real-time biophysical nowcast/forecast for Lake Huron CSMI 2022.






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These animations provide estimates of the transport of river inputs by currents in Lake Michigan, and contribution to phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll-a). This information is intended to support field researchers during the 2020 Lake Michigan Coordinated Science and Monitoring Initiative (CSMI). The model consists of a phosphorus-limited lower food web, with state variables representing dissolved phosphorus, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus (Rowe et al., 2017). Dreissenid mussels are not included in these simulations. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is simulated as a tracer for river input, with a slow decay rate. River inputs of water, temperature, dissolved phosphorus, particulate phosphorus, and DOC are included at 38 locations. The model simulations are updated daily, and provide a 24 hour nowcast and a three-day forecast.

Data on currents are obtained from NOAA's Lake Michigan-Huron Operational Forecast System (LMHOFS).

LMHOFS is an application of the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM).

River discharge data are obtained from USGS National Water Information System.

Reference: Rowe, M. D., Anderson, E. J., Vanderploeg, H. A., Pothoven, S. A., Elgin, A. K., Wang, J., Yousef, F. (2017). Influence of invasive quagga mussels, phosphorus loads, and climate on spatial and temporal patterns of productivity in Lake Michigan: A biophysical modeling study. Limnology and Oceanography, 62(6), 2629-2649. https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2017/20170018.pdf

Tributary total and dissolved phosphorus mean concentrations were estimated from data associated with the following publications:

- Dolan and Chapra. 2012. Journal of Great Lakes Research 38: 730–740
- Robertson, D.M., and Saad, D.A., 2019, Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads in streams of the Midwestern United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2019–5114, 74 p. including 5 appendixes https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20195114

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